Rainy Week ahead for Tamil Nadu but Low Inference can Wait

Weather Update

As a famous proverb “A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush” goes by many a time we miss out the small joys nature offers in front of us while trying to look way ahead of larger things.

For the Weather Bloggers of Chennai any development that indicates a possible Cyclone is always an opportunity to discuss about the endless possibilities weather models throw up. With COVID forced lockdown a lot of bloggers have much more spare time than usual resulting in anxious discussions among bloggers on what is in store with models divergent in their inferences.

With two circulations embedded in a broad area of circulation extending all the way from Andaman to Comorin Sea it is fairly clear the two circulations, one over Andaman which is a remnant from the earlier LPA & the second one over Comorin Sea the models possibly are struggling to pick up the right vortex that could take control. Given this context it is fair to assume while most models expect the circulation near Andaman to descend into a Low Pressure area the LPA could happen anywhere within the broad area of circulation. The overall intensity, track & impact areas will accordingly have to redefined based on the actual genesis. Hence it makes sense to hold our horses or as the kids use “Waitees”

In the meanwhile though let us not lose the immediate joy that is likely to be provided by the prevailing weather pattern. The two circulations and the broad circulation housing it is likely to provide perfect conditions for moisture to be recycled over Peninsular India bringing rains to Tamil Nadu this week.

Starting today we can see some uptick in rains for places in TN especially coastal areas will start to see sharp spell of showers like Northeast Monsoon time. As the day progresses convective heating will trigger interior thunderstorms through the moisture getting pushed across the landscape by Easterlies. As the week progresses we will start seeing more areas of TN get a spell or two of rains with few places on the Eastern slopes of Western Ghats getting heavy thunderstorms through trapped moisture.

Chennai & rest of North Coastal TN is also in line to get a spell of rains later this week. Forget the quantum for a while and let us enjoy whatever comes our way. In the meanwhile let us continue to track all the twists & turns the upcoming disturbance is likely to throw at us