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Cyclone Formation Alert in Bay of Bengal from JTWC – Ashobaa in the making?

November 6, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a cyclone formation alert in the Bay of Bengal.  The probability of a Tropical Cyclone formation over the next 24 hours is very high as per JTWC. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9114web.txt Currently the system is showing some good organization and is expected to move in a NNW direction as it gets guided by the HPA over its east.  Under a marginal shear zone the system has very high SST to its advantage and could intensify well over the next couple of days.  Though its unlikely this one would undergo rapid intensification like Nilofar or Hudhud.  If [Read More]

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Bay of Bengal Deep Depression – Update

November 6, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

The Deep Depression in Bay of Bengal is now under a sustained attack of Dry Air which is influencing its development.  One can notice the low moisture content seeping into the system in the video as blue colours envelopes the system. Already under the effect of Moderate Shear its going to be seriously handicapped over the next day or two as it winds up towards the Indian Coast moving along in a Westerly Direction. We might end up with a case of the system only reaching peak intensity of Deep Depression and not a Tropical Cyclone as per IMD standards. [Read More]

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Flashback – Diviseema Uppena (AP Cyclone) November 1977

November 4, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

Roughly 37 yeas back, Andhra Pradesh was struck by a Category 4 Cyclone, an event that possibly was the most referred to Cyclone in AP prior to the landfall of Hudhud in Vizag last month.  For a state that has seen its fair share of Cyclonic Storms over the years it is an understatement to say Diveseema Uppena gives shivers to old timers especially from the fertile Krishna Delta region. The Diviseema island was hit by storm surge that raised to almost 6 metres submerging the island and killing peoples in thousands. The town of Avanigadda was battered beyond recognition [Read More]

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LPA formed over Bay of Bengal

November 4, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

A Low Pressure Area has formed over Bay of Bengal (not officially confirmed yet by IMD).  It has formed to the North West of what was expected to be the point of formation.  The point of genesis is very important for the development and life cycle of any Tropical System.  The current genesis point possibly puts the system under slightly unfavourable conditions compared to what could have been the conditions if it had formed closer to Andaman Islands. The system could possibly face moderate shear earlier in its life cycle possibly impacting its development.  Please find our analysis based on [Read More]