The next Bay Low Pressure has started its journey to the East of Andaman Islands. While Global agencies have started tracking the invest area since last night we can expect an official announcement from IMD today. Unlike Cyclone Kyant this Bay Low Pressure possibly is going to be much more straight forward in terms of possible track and intensity.
The models are consistent on an initial West / Northwest movement for the next 48 hours or so crossing South Andaman Islands possibly on the way. The Bay Low Pressure could become a tropical cyclone around 3rd Nov. late night or possibly 4th morning after which we could possibly see a pronounced Northwest Movement towards coastal Andhra Pradesh. Subsequently depending on intensity we could possibly see a further changes in the direction of the track though its too early to look at that as of now.
In the meanwhile after the onset phase of Northeast Monsoon we are likely to see rains ease in Tamil Nadu over the next couple of days. While we could see isolated rains over a few places in North Coastal Tamil Nadu one or two places in extreme South Tamil Nadu around Kanyakumari district could see moderate to heavy rains along with adjoining parts of Kerala.
Chennai will see mostly fair weather with isolated short spells of rains at times. These rains are unlikely to be widespread. In all probability after today’s isolated rains Chennai could see a dry spell of weather for the next few days until the Bay Low Pressure completes its journey.