Weak Northeast Monsoon Onset expected as Chennai heads for driest October

As IMD confirmed the onset of Northeast Monsoon yesterday, Chennai is heading for one of the driest October ever.  While Chennai Nungambakkam could end up with about 22 mm, Chennai Meenambakkam  will possibly end up with about 5 mm for all of October.  Both places will end up with deficits in excess of 200 mm for October.  Things don’t look promising for the next few days as far as North Tamil Nadu goes in terms of monsoon conditions.

Northeast Monsoon has been active over West Interior region and Delta districts with many places getting good rains yesterday night and today early morning, North Tamil Nadu has been seeing subdued spells of rains at the same time.  These rains have been much needed for placs like Coimbatore and Tiruppur which were seeing dry conditions prevail for most parts of the last few month.

A fresh low pressure is expected to form over Southeast Bay of Bengal which holds the key for the next monsoon surge over North Tamil Nadu.  Numerical models are indicating the system to move in a W/NW direction heading towards Coastal Andhra Pradesh.  With rain hands expected to be heavier over the Northern side of the tropical disturbance at this time of the year we could see the places to the North getting bulk of rains as the Low Pressure intensifies and moves towards East Coast of Peninsular India.  What we require is a more Westward track from the low pressure to give rains to Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh.

Like today morning Chennai could see early morning isolated showers tomorrow morning as well but overall the rainfall prospects for North Coastal TN looks less while Delta and West Interior TN possibly sees another good day of Northeast Monsoon today.