Winter 2024 was abnormally warm over Southern Peninsular India. The IMD monthly summary indicated during the month of January the max temperatures over the region was about 0.67°C above normal which was the fourth highest average maximum temperature during January since 1901. During February the max temperature over Southern Peninsular India was 0.97°C warmer than normal making it the highest average maximum temperature during the month of February. In terms of mean temperature 2024 was the warmest during both January and February, indicative of the poor winter Southern Peninsular India has seen this year.
With the Winter season, according to IMD classification, behind us it is time to look at the temperature trends more actively. Day before yesterday Anantapur in Andhra Pradesh recorded the first 40°C among IMD stations of the country for the year 2024. As a matter of fact day before yesterday was the earliest instance of Anantapur recording 41°C in the past 25 years or so. Sub seasonal weather outlooks indicate the upcoming week may see parts of Peninsular India come under abnormally hot day time temperatures.
The Extreme Forecast Index from ECMWF indicate a very high probability for parts of Interior Karnataka and adjoining areas of NW interior TN, parts of Andhra Pradesh and parts of Kerala closer to the Palghat Gap may see abnormally hot conditions. The temperature charts indicate North Coastal Tamil Nadu which has so far seen near normal day time temperatures can come under an increase in afternoon temperatures during the second half of this week. The bulk of the heat though is expected to be over the interior areas of Peninsular India. Places like Bengaluru in Interior Karnataka may see day time maximum temperatures stay 2 to 4 degrees above normal during the second half of this week.
Weather models indicate parts of Namakkal, Erode, Salem and Karur districts along with pockets of Tiruppur and Coimbatore district closer to the Palghat Gap may see temperatures touch 38 / 39°C today. There is a very high chance isolated places in this region may touch 40°C over the next day or two. Similarly weather models are fairly consistent in increasing temperatures over South Tamil Nadu as well. Parts of Madurai, Virudhunagar along with the interior areas of Thoothukudi, Sivagangai district may also see appreciable increase in temperatures this week.
As mentioned above while today and tomorrow places like Chennai and suburbs in North Coastal TN may see near normal day time temperatures from Wednesday the afternoon temperatures may increase with temperatures expected to peak on Friday / Saturday during the current spell of abnormally warm temperatures.