Winter 2024 gets ready to bid adieu

Weather Update

अलविदा

Alvida (Hindi: अलविदा) means “farewell ” or “adieu” not simply “good bye”. You do not expect to see him/it again if you tell alvida to someone or something. The word comes from the Arabic alwida (Arabic : الوداع). Speakers of some languages not limited to Urdu and Hindi pronounce the “w” as a “v”, hence alvida instead of alwida.

The 30 years between 1952 and 1982 saw not even one very strong El Nino event (Above 2.0°C anomaly in Pacific Sea Surface temperatures for a period of 6 months ) with 1965-66 and 1972 -73 coming close to being a very strong El Nino event. after touching 2.0°C between Sept. to Dec. 1965 and 2.1°C between Oct.-Jan.1973 respectively. Since 1982 which saw a very strong El Nino event between Oct. – Feb.1983 we have seen two more very strong El Nino events during the year 1997-98 and 2015-16. It is unlikely 2023-24 will be classified as a strong El Nino event though 2023 is now the warmest year on earth.

The effects of El Nino on global weather is now well established both in terms of precipitation and temperatures. In a sub plot of repeated El Nino episodes over the Pacific the Indo Pacific Warm Pool has almost doubled in size affecting global weather patterns. A detailed COMK post will possibly put up soon on how this warm pool has gradually warmed up and it’s influence in the increasing sea surface temperatures over North Indian Ocean.

In the meanwhile what ever mild winter conditions that were existing over Peninsular India is expected to fade away soon as sub seasonal models indicate a gradual warming of Peninsular India bringing with it increased temperatures over the interior parts of Peninsular India and the West Coast which typically are the first set of places in the region to warm up as they get ready for transition and convective thunderstorms around March. There is increasing consistency among weather models most of Peninsular India is not only expected to remain dry for the next couple of weeks but day time temperatures are likely to increase from next week over parts of Interior Karnataka, West interior TN, parts of Rayalaseema Telangana along with some parts of Kerala.

Weather models indicate first week of February may see day time temperatures in large parts of Deccan Plateau stay 3 / 4°C above normal indicating the early advent of summer over some parts of Peninsular India. Places like Chennai in coastal Tamil Nadu though may benefit from the Easterlies moderating the temperatures for the next few weeks as this part of the region is normally known to join the heat bandwagon much later compared to rest of the Peninsular India.