As we get to the last week of December it is time to discuss the inevitable. When does Northeast Monsoon come to an end for this year? As we have mentioned often statistically the Northeast Monsoon season ends on 31st December. But many years the monsoon dynamics may continue into January. In some cases they…
Easterly wave brings final rainfall event of 2025
This year Northeast Monsoon has been a season of “Fits and Starts. Long dry spells interspersed with bouts of rainfall event that are of short duration. Unfavourable tropical waves during the first fortnight of November did not help either. The heaviest rains during NEM season is normally during LPA / Depression / Cyclone. But the…
Spell of cold weather ahead for Tamil Nadu
Northeast Monsoon this year has seen short burst of active monsoon interspersed with longer spell of dry weather. Large parts of the first fortnight of November saw dry weather conditions. 2nd fortnight slowly saw Monsoon get back on track with Cyclonic Storm Ditwah tilting the seasonal rainfall charts for many districts. This is visible in…
AN EMPERICAL TECHNIQUE USING HOVMÖLLERS TO PREDICT GENESIS, INTENSITY AND TRACK OF TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
Have you ever wondered if one can anticipate and predict the genesis, intensity and tracks of tropical disturbances almost weeks/month in advance with reasonable confidence? While prima-facie, we believed MJO to be the sole tropical wave driving all monsoons, ER which has always been present along with MJO and which moves east->west has actually been the…
“MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION” AS THE DRIVER OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON AND “EQUATORIAL ROSSBY” AS THE DRIVER OF NORTHEAST MONSOON RAINFALL
“Truths remain hidden for long while lies easily propagate across weeks, months or even years just like the week-lies” There is always a necessity to unlearn and relearn as new insights emerge. It is in this context; as one reads the title, this post is likely to serve as a revelation to every weather enthusiast/blogger….