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Bay Disturbance – Possible Evolution Alternatives

November 3, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

COMK Blog exclusively for the first time brings out a forecast for the Bay Disturbance which covers all aspects that govern the evolution of a cyclone in a seamless manner.  Just wait as the story evolves on its own through an animated GIF. Starting from where the Low Pressure Area might form we track the journey as how it gets steered through from Andaman Islands to possible landfall over the Eastern Coast of India.  During this journey we have tried to explain how High Pressure Areas (HPA), that play a vital role in the directions the cyclones take, to the [Read More]

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Bay Keeps Weather Enthusiasts on tenterhooks

November 2, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

The Bay has been keeping weather enthusiasts on tenterhooks with models predicting a wide range of Tracks and Landfall Locations.  The earliest landfall is on 7th and the latest is beyond 12th. Primarily the confusion stems from the fact that there exists firm possibility of cyclone developing from three different locations.  The birth location of cyclones play a very important role on the path they might take and finally the landfall location. While currently there is a marginal Low Pressure area off the coast of Sri Lanka which was initially expected to dissipate by today paving way for a possible [Read More]

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November Cyclones – Historical Perspective – Tamil Nadu

November 1, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

With the cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal its time to put a historical perspective to the November cyclones over the last 50 years that hit Chennai. About 18 systems have hit Tamil Nadu during November which compared to the rest of East coast of about 35 systems gives a probability of 1 in 3 systems hitting Tamil Nadu. The last biggest system to hit Tamil Nadu was Cyclone Jal in the year 2010 which became a Very Severe Cyclone before making a landfall at Chennai as a depression. The year 1996 saw a Severe Cyclone making a complete [Read More]

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Cyclone in Bay of Bengal now a Strong Probability – Where would it go?

November 1, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

IMD has officially declared a watch over the Trough of Low present in the South West Bay.  Over the next 24 hours a LOPAR is expected to form West of Andaman Islands.  The location of the LOPAR area is vital for the possible path the cyclone would take and its eventual landfall. It appears that as things stand the LOPAR area could form slightly East of what would have been an ideal location for Chennai to get the benefit of Cyclone & Rains. Based on the cyclogenesis location the possible NW movement would take the system around Central AP.  But [Read More]