Back in 2017 when even IMD did not issue seasonal update for NEM our first outlook was put up. Initially the outlooks were mostly based on seasonal OLR charts or Hovmollers from CFS. Gradually the availability of ECMWF seasonal forecasts provided another tool to look into while making seasonal outlooks. Over time these seasonal outlooks…
SWM season comes to a statistical end
India’s official weather agency IMD has classified a calendar year into four seasons for the purpose of rainfall classification. Rains during the months of January and February get counted against winter rains. Rains between March and May fall under Summer or Pre Monsoon season. Rainfall between 1st June and 30th September gets classified as SWM…
South China Sea conveyor belt keeps monsoon dynamics going
Yesterday IMD announced further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from more parts of North India. Almost entire NW India has seen monsoon withdraw yesterday nearly 5 days ahead of the normal date of 30th September. But over the next few days this revival of withdrawal from 21st September will go through a pause. Southwest Monsoon this…
SWM withdrawal to make slow progress due to fresh Monsoon Low
On 14th September IMD announced the start of SWM withdrawal from the country as parts of Rajasthan saw reversal of winds. A couple of days later IMD announced further withdrawal from some more parts of Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat. Under the revised SWM withdrawal guidelines 17th September is the normal date for the first…
Wind instability sets platform for thunderstorms over South India
With IMD’s announcement of monsoon withdrawal of SWM from parts of Rajasthan the first milestone towards transition of Southwest Monsoon to Northeast Monsoon has been achieved. IMD also expected further withdrawal of Monsoon over parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat in the next few days. This year Monsoon withdrawal has started a couple of days before…