Yesterday IMD announced further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from more parts of North India. Almost entire NW India has seen monsoon withdraw yesterday nearly 5 days ahead of the normal date of 30th September. But over the next few days this revival of withdrawal from 21st September will go through a pause. Southwest Monsoon this year has sort of gone through a time tested path. The most active period has coincided with a train of disturbances coming into Bay from South China Sea.
A monsoon depression of North AP / Odisha Coast and one waiting to enter North Andaman sea is indicative of this.This regular arrival of circulation into Bay of Bengal owes a lot to favourable MISO. The last active MISO phase for Central India and and South China Sea is now underway. Likely to prevail until the 2nd week of October this phase could see one more Monsoon Low later next week. There is a slight chance there could be one last Monsoon low during 2nd week of October. That could possibly be the end phase of SWM 2025.Subsequently we may see a rapid withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from core monsoon areas like Central India.
Over the next couple of days as the monsoon depression moves inland we may see widespread heavy to very heavy rains over Interior Maharashtra. Konkan Coast, particularly around Mumbai and adjoining areas may see very heavy to extremely heavy rains tomorrow and day after. Weather models indicate the next Monsoon low may push into Central India. A possible interaction with an incoming westerly trough could bring very heavy rains over parts of Himalayas. It may be prudent for Uttarakhand, particularly areas bordering Nepal to be alert for this spell.
Closer home the plains of Tamil Nadu may not see much thunderstorm activity for the next few days. Chennai and suburbs though may see some fast moving rain spells with sudden bursts as moisture moves across Peninsular India. West coast of Peninsular India may see widespread rains continue for the next couple of days. Kerala may see some reduction after that while Coastal Karnataka may continue to see rains until later next week.