Southwest Monsoon season officially starts from 1st June and ends on 30th September. During this period the first fortnight is mostly spent by the monsoon covering most parts of the country including core monsoon regions. The months of July and August is the most critical period for Southwest Monsoon with more than 60% of the mean seasonal rainfall for the country happening during the months. July contributes almost 1/3rd of the seasonal monsoon rainfall while the contribution of August is almost 30% of the seasonal accumulation.
It is in this context July and August is always considered the key period of Southwest Monsoon and any performance lag during these two months are very difficult to make up through the other two months. The strongest monsoon surge is normally seen during these two months peaking at around end July / early August before gradually slowing down as we get to September. The daily rainfall timeseries maintained by IMD confirms for the first time since the start of Southwest Monsoon 2022 the daily realised average rainfall is consistently higher than the long term mean rainfall. This positive phase has meant the overall Monsoon performance has moved into positive phase for the first time since the start of the season.
The next week to 10 days similar conditions are expected with this period defining the performance of this year’s monsoon performance. The erratic nature notwithstanding west coast which most seasonal models indicated initially to have a poor performance may be comfortably above average as we possibly head to a short monsoon break around mid of next week though southern parts of Kerala and adjoining Kanyakumari district is still going to be concern with favorable winds remaining elusive so far.
Consequent to the strong monsoon surge gusty conditions are likely to prevail over most parts off Peninsular India with places like Trichy, to the west of Palghat Gap, expected to see a forecasted wind gusts of more than 50 km/h while places like Bengaluru being perched on the Deccan Plateau may also see very gusty conditions with winds blowing from the west. Due to strong westerlies thunderstorm formation may be limited over the leeward areas of Tamil Nadu but the monsoon surge may bring some light drizzle to a few places.