Getting Inside the minds of Weather Models

Weather Update

கண்ணால் காண்பதும் பொய், காதால் கேட்பதும் பொய், தீர விசாரிப்பதே மெய். is a famous proverb that as weather enthusiasts one should never forget. In our love for rains many a times we forget the first Cardinal Rule of the COMK Dummies of Weather Blogging “Weather Models are not Gods” we blindly trust when ever rains are shown by weather models irrespective of season / conditions etc.

The challenge for a serious weather enthusiast is to separate the wheat from the chaff. It is easier said than done. The only way out for this is through hard work putting in many hours of observation to understand potential scenarios / causes for rains etc. and then work backwards to understand if the models are showing enough consistency for a particular event.

During any off season rainfall episode it becomes even more critical to understand the possible circumstances under which the rains are expected to carefully estimate whether the rains can actually happen or not. This will go a long way in standing on right side of a failed forecast.