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Bay of Bengal Current & Prospective Disturbances Analysis

November 8, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

The current depression in Bay of Bengal has pretty much ended its life cycle with Shear and Dry Air killing any chance of becoming anything big.  Its currently to the ENE of Chennai and is expected to wind up towards the Indian Coast towards South AP / North TN,  whether it would indeed reach the coast is something still to be seen.  As it potentially moves towards the coast there is a chance for some rains for North TN tomorrow. In the meanwhile there is a potential disturbance which IMD is also tracking with interest.  This system is now to [Read More]

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Where is the Depression in the Bay of Bengal?

November 7, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

There is quite a confusion over the actual position of the depression over Bay of Bengal with two different agencies providing two different locations for the same time.  The difference in position between IMD and JTWC is apart by more than 150 kms. This difference in the location of the system is creating two different tracks and potential landfall points as well While JTWC expects a Westerly track with a landfall close to Chennai IMD expects a NW track and possible dissipation over open seas But the truth is there is hardly anything decent left in the system to give [Read More]

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Cyclone Formation Alert in Bay of Bengal from JTWC – Ashobaa in the making?

November 6, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a cyclone formation alert in the Bay of Bengal.  The probability of a Tropical Cyclone formation over the next 24 hours is very high as per JTWC. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9114web.txt Currently the system is showing some good organization and is expected to move in a NNW direction as it gets guided by the HPA over its east.  Under a marginal shear zone the system has very high SST to its advantage and could intensify well over the next couple of days.  Though its unlikely this one would undergo rapid intensification like Nilofar or Hudhud.  If [Read More]

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Bay of Bengal Deep Depression – Update

November 6, 2014 12:00 am admin 0

The Deep Depression in Bay of Bengal is now under a sustained attack of Dry Air which is influencing its development.  One can notice the low moisture content seeping into the system in the video as blue colours envelopes the system. Already under the effect of Moderate Shear its going to be seriously handicapped over the next day or two as it winds up towards the Indian Coast moving along in a Westerly Direction. We might end up with a case of the system only reaching peak intensity of Deep Depression and not a Tropical Cyclone as per IMD standards. [Read More]