Northeast Monsoon by itself is an erratic monsoon over the years which is one of the reasons most of the time forecasts are extremely difficult to make for the season and anything longer than a week is a risk. With very little research done on Northeast Monsoon unlike Southwest Monsoon there is very little past data to fall back on to make meaningful assessment of what is in store for Southern Peninsula during Northeast Monsoon.
This year the monsoon is possibly a roller coaster ride as far as rains are concerned. It has been moving up and down like a Roller Coaster ride under no one’s control.
As one would see with this chart which is maintained by IMD of Weekly Rainfall as a comparison to the long term average it shows how wildly the rains are fluctuating. Except for Coimbatore no other district in Tamil Nadu has had three consecutive weeks of Normal and above rainfall. Its on most cases Deficient with one Excess week in between or in some cases an Excess Week among weeks of scanty rainfall. This trend would continue when the numbers for week ending 19th December is computed thanks to excess mid week rains which most parts of Tamil Nadu received. As things are looking the week ending 26th could look bad with possibly very little rains over North TN.
With the way things are shaping up in bay, it is a firm possibility this week could see a completely dry week until Friday or Saturday. Even then the models are not expecting any major rains for North TN.