On behalf of all the weather bloggers at COMK we wish our readers a Happy Independence Day. Southwest Monsoon season this year has been fairly eventful for core Monsoon Zone in Central India. Overall in terms of dynamics it is fair to say Monsoon Intra-seasonal Oscillation (MISO) has skewed towards Central India. The weekly progression chart sort of conveys this clearly. East MP has seen Excess / Large Excess in 6 out of the 11 weeks so far. West MP also has similarly seen 6 weeks of Excess / Large Excess rains. East and West Rajasthan has seen 8 & 7 weeks of Excess / Large Excess rains respectively. Ironically Kerala has seen only 1 week of excess rains so far since the start of SWM season.
The first fortnight of August has been below par for Peninsular West Coast and the Ghats due to the Break in Monsoon conditions. The development of Monsoon low over West Central and adjoining North Bay did bring back some rains. But overall southern parts of Peninsular India continue to see weak monsoon conditions with unfavourable MISO. The fresh MISO pulse that helped leeward plains of TN to get some much needed rains has moved North.
Over the next couple of weeks MISO is expected to favour Central India,Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. This could potentially mean after the current monsoon low moves inland a fresh pulse may move into Bay. In all this it may be a good thing to keep a watch on potential very heavy / extremely heavy rains over parts of Gujarat if the current low redevelops into a low off Gujarat coast after moving west.
Along with weaker than normal monsoon along Peninsular West coast the leeward plains of TN may also see drier weather. Over the next couple of days though North Coastal TN possibly could see some isolated / scattered thunderstorms continue. As we get to next week most parts of the state may remain dry. The small gap between the two lows may bring about another opportunity for thunderstorms. As far as leeward plains go the next decent window is 1st fortnight of September. But there is still sometime to go before we can start dialling in that window.
Today and tomorrow may see evening / night thunderstorms that could bring some rains to parts of Chennai & suburbs. It could also keep the temperatures under check with some cloudy skies during morning hours.