Well Marked Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal, developing slowly

With Cyclone Nada out of the way its time to track the new Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal.  Currently the Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal is slightly to the South of Andaman Islands around the Sumatra region.  IMD confirmed the Low Pressure has intensified into a Well Marked Low and is on its way to becoming a Depression in the next 12 – 24 hours or so.  Subsequently it could become a Deep Depression while its taking a W/NW track on its way towards the Indian shores.


Numerical Models have a fairly tight agreement in the first phase of the journey of this Well Marked Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal.  Subsequently both of the major Global Models, ECMWF & GFS, are showing some divergence in terms of time frame, intensity & possible landfall locations.


As one can observe from the video after 48 hours or so slowly the divergence is developing with almost 500 kms difference and more than 24 hours developing between the two models as the system comes closer to landfall point.  This is possibly on account of how the models are judging the intensity of the system and the likely roles of the High Pressure zones in the region.

At this juncture it would be prudent to take one day at a time and observe the actual events to infer the likely journey the system could take in the coming days.  As things stand we are likely to see some consistency developing among models in the next 24 hours or so which could give a clear indication on the impact areas from the upcoming disturbance.