Weather Models struggle to understand Bay as always

Weather Update

எப்பொருள் யார்யார்வாய்க் கேட்பினும் அப்பொருள்
மெய்ப்பொருள் காண்ப தறிவு. – திருக்குறள் (அறிவுடைமை)

எந்தக் கருத்தை எவர் சொன்னாலும், அக்கருத்தின் உண்மையைக் காண்பது அறிவு (சாலமன் பாப்பையா). To discern the truth in every thing, by whomsoever spoken, is wisdom.

As weather bloggers it is always important to look at weather model outputs in an unbiased manner if one was serious about understanding weather patterns. It is not uncommon for all of us to potentially think a particular scenario as likely scenario just because it matches our expectations. The day we do that is the day we stop learning from that set of events.

Bay of Bengal has many a time proven Global weather models struggle to understand the dynamics of this closed basin. It’s no different now as well with multiple factors playing around creating conflicting and competing scenarios which models struggle to to narrow down. Counter circulations on either side of equator always create trouble for weather models that tend to underestimate the the umbilical cord more often than not ties this to circulation thereby missing out on the delayed timelines that could happen for consolidation of Low Pressure Area.

While MJO may influence Indian Ocean the presence of ITCZ along the equator means the effect of MJO may not be fully absorbed by the disturbance in Bay of Bengal. Keeping this in mind one has to be circumspect of intensities shown by weather models. More than ever taking one day at a time becomes very relevant now. Having said that while there could be divergence over intensity, track and landfall of the Bay disturbance there is fairly tight agreement on the rainfall prospects for Tamil Nadu.

Last but not the least do not forget to search for the truth even if the statement is from God.