Southwest Monsoon to be vigorous over Coastal Karnataka

The Southwest Monsoon has finally started picking up pace after a lull since the onset a couple of weeks back.  Making slow progress since the onset the presence of a Low Pressure Area in Central / North Bay area has given a fresh impetus to monsoon surge creating possibly the first  vigorous phase of Southwest Monsoon 2017. The sequence of events confirm how important are the Monsoon disturbances in Bay of Bengal for the regular progress of Southwest Monsoon.  Cyclone Mora created the right dynamics for Monsoon Onset while the current disturbance is creating the right environment for the first surge and for Southwest Monsoon to cover more parts of the country.

With a huge amount of moisture being pumped over South India thanks to the monsoon surge the potential for heavy rains over parts of West Coast has increased drastically over the next couple of days.  This is likely to create very windy conditions for most parts of South India particularly those places which fall on the right side of the various gaps that exist in Western Ghats.

Thanks to the high upper level moisture and related cloudy conditions that is likely to prevail over most parts of South India we could possibly see temperatures stay slightly below normal or closer to normal over most parts of Tamil Nadu.  With moisture near saturation at many levels of atmosphere we could possibly see the radiation effect negated today leading to lower day time temperatures.

Today could be the first Very Heavy Rains Spell to Hit West Coast in more than a year.  Parts of Coastal Karnataka & a few places in North Kerala could see very heavy rains starting today for the next couple of days.  Thanks to the strong streamlines forming over South India parts of Interior Karnataka are also in line for some moderate to heavy rains today.  This could augur well for Cauvery river Basin which has been reeling under drought like conditions since last year.

Some places in the Western Ghats around Nilgiris / Valaparai in Tamil Nadu is also in line to get some heavy rains today with conditions perfectly placed for the Southwest Monsoon heavy weights like Chinna Kallar, Devala to record triple digit rainfall figures today. While normally under active monsoon conditions places like Chennai in East Coast of India gets lesser chance of rainfall but it appear we could possibly get some luck by falling in the streamlines to get some rains.  Keeping in mind the wind speeds the thunderstorms will possibly move fast and end up giving some sharp spells of rains moving away before we realize.

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