Southwest Monsoon 2015 So Far – A Summary

It is often remarked Tamil Nadu being in the rain shadow region is not so much influenced by the performance of Southwest Monsoon over rest of the country.  Yes we are in the rain shadow region but our daily lives are very much connected to how good or bad Southwest Monsoon happens over the west of the country.  Read on to know more.

Not only the agrarian economy of the Delta districts are heavily dependent on Southwest Monsoon through River Cauvery which owes most of its water to the Southwest Monsoon Season, the people of Chennai need to pray for good rains over the distant Shayadri Hills near Pune for good water flow over the Krishna River, an important drinking water source through the Krishna Canal.

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Now for a summary on how this year’s monsoon has been so far.  There is an old saying during El Nino years the deserts get flooded.  Southwest Monsoon 2015 has proved an El Nino Year with an unlikely topper in the form of West Rajasthan. The desert region has got 61% excess rains so far and even if Southwest Monsoon 2015 withdraws today it would have an excess monsoon with 31% excess for the season.

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Now let us look at those sub divisions which have got raw deal from Southwest Monsoon 2015.  West Interior Maharasthra is staring a potential drought scenario and is going to possibly have a hard year ahead for the agrarian sector.  If one looks at the monthly numbers it is pretty much clear both July & August has been disastrous for all of these sub divisions  highlighting how bad this year’s monsoon has performed during the rainiest period.

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Now let us look at how the traditionally rainiest regions have performed this Southwest Monsoon 2015.  As one would observe the top 5 rainiest zones are all having below normal year with 3 out of the 5 divisions having a deficit year. The three Coastal divisions, Konkan&Goa, Coastal Karntaka, Kerala, have had an extremely poor monsoon which is going to show up as aftershocks right through this year.

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Now let us look at what it would take for Southwest Monsoon 2015 to become normal. Can September turn it around when the two rainiest months have failed.  The vulnerable division list is not a good reading at all.  The traditional heavy weights Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa all need 3 times normal rainfall in September to end the season in normal.  Will it happen?

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Now for the moderately vulnerable divisions though it is going to be a tough ask for these regions to end without deficit.

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And finally the divisions which are possibly going to end up with normal rainfall this Southwest Monsoon 2015.  West Rajasthan is already an excess state.  J&K, Gangetic West Bengal, West MP would also possibly end up in excess state.

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