The last few days in a way has been a reflection of how NEM 2024 has behaved. A Low that started its journey many days back finally found its way to TN coast. After moving up and then down over the last couple of days it has brought fairly widespread rains to North Coastal TN. Effectively this could be the parting spell of rains for NEM 2024 for places like Chennai. Meanwhile Southern Ghats may have to start looking at Equatorial Bay. A fresh LPA / Trough of Low early next week could bring heavy rains to the eastern slopes in the Southern Ghats.
With the weak low further drifting as a trough over interior parts of Peninsular India interior TN may see rains today. North coastal places like Chennai can look forward to substantial reduction in rains from today. From tomorrow most parts of Tamil Nadu may see further reduction in rains expect for South TN. Parts of South TN may continue to see some rains until the next LPA / Trough of low comes along the Equatorial waters.
Ensembles indicate around early next week there is a moderate chance for a Trough of Low / LPA to move East to west along the Equatorial waters. The location of this disturbance potentially could bring heavy / very heavy rains over the Southern Ghats. We have seen in the past how persistent moisture pushed from the East by circulation around Sri Lanka / GOM could trigger rains in the Ghats. This is also reflecting in the 30 – 50% high flow probability in the Thamirabarani basin. A close watch over the next couple of days could give us an idea on whether the probability of increase water flow affecting Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi districts.
The 3 day and 7 day estimated rainfall range also confirms substantial reduction in rains over North TN. Similarly it also indicates potential for increased rainfall in the 4 – 7 day window over places like Pamban, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli in South TN. The maximum rainfall potential picked up by Ensembles for places closer to the ghats like Tenkasi, Papanasam also highlight the threat of heavy / very heavy rains in the Southern Ghats.
பருவத்தோடு ஒட்ட ஒழுகல் திருவினைத்
காலத்தோடுப் பொருந்துமாறு ஆராய்ந்து நடத்தல் ( நில்லாத இயல்பு உடைய) செல்வத்தை நீங்காமல் நிற்குமாறு கட்டும் கயிறாகும். — மு. வரதராசன்
தீராமை ஆர்க்குங் கயிறு.
This will be the last detailed post for the year 2024. With effect from now on the weather updates from COMK will no more be available on social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook. In the changing context of social media interaction a probability based approach to weather inferences may become counter productive in disaster communication. Detailed posts will continue to be posted in the blog. Weather updates and Nowcast alerts as and when needed will continue to be provided through the COMK WhatsApp Channel