Last couple of days the story of IMD issued Red Alert has been all over the place with news media carrying discussion after discussion on the Red Alert and what is expected. A lot of this discussions have been carried without taking into account the Alert Issued by IMD is from the administrative perspective and on the disaster management preparedness.
The administrative mechanism need to be ready for a scenario that is likely to evolve for which there is a certain amount of lead time is needed. Taking into account the lead time involved and the model estimates then it was fair for IMD to issue the “Red Alert to Administrative Teams” . Similar to how Google driven self medication is dangerous inference in public domain without a 360° approach in this context also is dangerous and ended up creating a panic.
With the Low Pressure forming now in Arabian Sea & possibly the disturbance moving more West than North as originally anticipated by the models we could see a slight change in precipitation pattern. The rainfall created by Moisture drag over Coastal areas will possibly be not as intense as expected a couple of days back by models. But the chance for heavy rains in a few places over Western Ghats continue to persist without any doubts.
We also need to take into account the developing disturbance in Bay of Bengal near Andaman Islands could possibly play a disturbing role in the wind pattern over Coastal Tamil Nadu. Models estimated the original disturbance further to the West compared to where it is currently evolving. This could create more Northerly winds reducing the probability of widespread heavy rains over the next couple of days.
Today we could see some easing of rains over North TN while rains are likely to be widespread in South Tamil Nadu with few places in line for heavy spells of rains during the morning hours as the deepening disturbance in Bay drags moisture along. Coastal areas between Delta & Thoothukudi could see isolated heavy rains while few places along the Western Ghats will possibly see moderate to heavy spells of rains at times.