Potential Tropical Disturbance to trigger Northeast Monsoon onset

Another day with more or less dry weather prevailing over most parts of Tamil Nadu with only Kanyakumari district the exception with moderate spells of rains in that district.  Thiruvattar in Kanyakumari district got about 24 mm till 12 in the night.

As the wait continues for the onset of Northeast Monsoon indications are evolving from various model outputs a potential tropical disturbance could trigger this year’s Monsoon Onset.  With the emergence of Mjo over Indian Ocean it is expected to trigger an active Tropical Disturbance from either of the two Upper Air circulations currently spinning off the coast of Sri Lanka.  While it is still unclear which of the circulation would dominate and develop into a full fledged disturbance most model consensus seem to indicate potential Northeast Monsoon onset from end of this week / early next week.  Along with the onset we could see the first active phase as well with fairly widespread rains forecast for most parts of TN starting from 26th / 27th October.

We will refrain from talking about which areas could potentially receive how much rainfall as of now until the genesis point is clear as the point of genesis holds the key for the development of the Tropical Disturbance, its path & intensity and area of influence. But models are indicating potentially heavy rainfall days for many parts of Coastal Tamil Nadu between 29th October & 3rd November as things stand.


Tamil Nadu Weather Update:  As has been the case for the last few days parts of South Tamil Nadu, particularly the districts of Kanyakumari and Tirunelveli, is expected to receive some spells of rains today under the influence of the UAC near Lakshadweep.  Rest of Tamil Nadu could remain dry with slightly warmer than normal temperatures

Chennai Weather Update: Partly cloudy skies during the morning with day time temperature touching around 33°C.  Late evenings and Early mornings would continue to be very pleasant. Chances of rains appear to be less for today as well.