With three weeks of April gone Peninsular India is firmly under the grip of summer. The overall temperatures has not been anomalously hot. Persisting dry weather though has been playing in the minds of the people. As we hear often “Never has it been this hot” is out in full force this year as well. But overall if we look at the seasonal maximum temperature anomaly indicate most places are near normal or marginally above normal. Places like Chennai along the East coast may have to thank for the persisting anomalous Easterlies for temperatures being under check.
There is no denying mango showers / summer rainfall season has come to a grinding halt over Peninsular India. The seasonal deficit for Kerala now stands at -36% since 1st March. This suppressed phase has coincided with what is the peak phase of summer rains. Sub seasonal outlooks indicate this period of dry weather may continue for another week or so. A likely arrival of favourable tropical wave transit during the first few days of May could change things around. But as of now there is a chance this transit may be delayed which could aggravate summer over Peninsular India.
IMD’s first phase monsoon forecast has painted a gloomy picture for SWM this year. A poor pre monsoon may make things worse. In addition to making Peninsular India vulnerable to heat stress we may also see soil moisture stress. The water storage across Cauvery basin is nearly 36 TMC down compared to last year. Storage in Mettur is almost 30 TMC down on last year as on date. A poor season of summer rains and weak start to monsoon may potentially impact the Kuruvai cultivation in delta districts.
We have no control over what nature throws as dice for the upcoming monsoon season. But in the immediate days ahead the persisting dry weather will continue impact Peninsular India. Day time conditions across the interior areas may remain uncomfortably hot with no major impact expected from thunderstorms / mango showers. AP & TS states along with adjoining areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka will continue to remain hot. West interior TN, parts of South TN and North Interior TN may continue to see 39 / 40°C days. While city areas of Chennai may not be very hot suburbs may see 37 / 38°C days continue.