Northeast Monsoon Onset likely today / tomorrow

Weather Update
Chennaiyil Oru Mazhaikkaalam
Reading Time: 2 minutes

It is that time of the year when weather bloggers across South India, particularly Tamil Nadu start behaving like Dads pacing themselves outside labor ward as he waits for his child to be born. Yes every year just before the onset of Northeast Monsoon there is a sense of expectation / butterflies in the stomach moment for weather bloggers as the window of Onset comes to within the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tension builds as a lot of thoughts get into the minds about the intensity of onset, how would it compare to past onsets.

The satellite image indicates Northeast Monsoon may not be far away with Easterlies strengthening under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation seen over Bay of Bengal.  The early morning high decibel action that hit Chennai & suburbs on Monday is a confirmation the Onset is a matter of another 24 hours or so.  The wind charts show the reason for the high decibel action in the form of a wind convergence over coastal areas of Tamil Nadu.

The UAC seen over Bay of Bengal has indeed to a great extent streamlined & strengthened the Easterlies compared to say 36 hours back.  With weather models consistent on the circulation drifting west as it prevails coming closer to the coast of Tamil Nadu the Easterlies will further strengthen & the rains are expected to increase when the circulation comes closer.

In the meanwhile today many places in South TN & West Interior TN may see moderate spell of rains while few places could see heavy spell of rains accompanied by lightning & thunder. Due to the wind convergence there is a chance for one or two places in coastal TN stretch between Pulicat & Marakkanam to come under intense thunderstorms during the afternoon / evening hours while Chennai & suburbs may see light to moderate rains in a few places.

All in All சென்னையில் ஒரு மழைக்காலம் இனிதாக துவங்க இருக்கிறது. Happy Monsooning.

169 thoughts on “Northeast Monsoon Onset likely today / tomorrow”

    1. Looks like after long time both atmosphere and ocean are in sync this year unlike 2016 where atmosphere acted like nino in spite of healthy Nina in Ocean?

  9. Snowfall till morning in Himachal pradesh. Under the influence of Western disturbance:

    Gondla – 15cm

    Hansa – 5cm

    Kadrala – 5cm

    Keylong – 3cm

  10. pondy annual rains till now-117cm(normal 134cm). So only 17cms required before 31st dec.

    oct rains-218.6mm(avg oct rains 255.8mm). Remaining 663.4mm required before 31st dec for normal nem.

  13. but doubtful of ICOn solution. Ridges are strong which should give way to fast moving system but nevertheless coastal TN in for significant wet spell in coming days with 28th-1st Nov period looking very good.

    1. Many models expecting massive easterly surge over TN coast due to the system.

      SoI think coastal TN should be prepared for very heavy rains in the coming days.

      1. Yes. Its going to be a significant spell.

        Favourable atmosphere provided by Nina and planetary waves, ridge placed north of the system will help it to become good rain bearing system.

  19. After successfully installing one more PWS at Thiruvanmiyur this August, now there is yet another Professional Weather Station which is up and running at Korattur/Padi owned by Novak Nole (Shiva) ,very happy to have installed it exactly on the day of NEM onset 2021 https://cdn.statically.io/twemoji/1f603.svg , here is hoping the station gets going from tonight itself with the grace of almighty my dear god, I am really excited to see many private weather stations at Chennai , looks like soon our own data can be used as ready reckoner in the future to train data,analyse and predict local conditions much better and use it for developing local WRF kind models https://cdn.statically.io/twemoji/1f60d.svg

    https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICHENN41

      2. ICON India Director , MISOL India Marketing and Customer affairs and recently I believe has even taken up a honorary posting in the IMD . Well Well

  26. Rainfall in Delhi (in cm). Under the influence of western disturbance:

    Pusa 4, 

    Lodi Road, Delhi Ridge, Safdarjung, Dhansa, Superintendent of Police Mayur Vihar and Delhi University 3 each, 

    Rashtrapati Bhavan 2,

    Ayanagar and Pitampura 1 each

  27. Rainfall in himachal pradesh(in cm):
    ————————————————
     Rajgarh 8, 
     
     Kasauli 7, 
     
     Naina Davi 5, 
     
     Amb and Jhandutta 4 each, 
     
     
    Dharampur, Solan, Berthin, Tissa, Hamirpur, Aghar, Kothi, Pachhar,
    Renuka/Dadhou, Baldwara, RL BBMB, Kandaghat and Manali 3 each, 

    Bhoranj, Nadaun, Paonta, Kahu, Mere (Barsar), Sujanpur Tira, Bangana_R,
    Hamirpur, Una Rampur and Una 2 each, 

    Gondla, Sangraha, Sundernagar, Dehra Gopipur, Nurpur/Jasur, Jubbal, Kotkhai, Shimla, Bilaspur Sadar, ,
    Dharamshala, Bharmour, Seo Bagh, Dharamsala, Bharari, Rampur Busher, Narkanda, Tinder, Shimla, Arki, Rohru, Nagrota Surian, Dalhousie Alha,
    Baijnath, Guler, Kangra Aero, Palampur, Nichar, Banjar and Kufri 1 each

    Rainfall in Punjab(in cm):
    ———————————————————
    Khanna and Nabha 10 each, 

    Bhadson 7, 

    Samana 5, 

    Rajpura, Anandpur Sahib and Sirhind 4 each, 

    Fatehgarh Sahib, Amloh, Payal and Patiala 3 each, 

    Ropar, Balachaur, Rajpura, Nangal and Sangrur 2 each, 

    Derabassi, Kharar and Tsunam 1 each.

  28. Rainfall in Haryana(in cm). Under the influence of western disturbance:

    Pratapnagar 7, 

    Beri and Tajewala 5 each, 

    Dadupur and Kalka 4 each, 

    Karnal, Chandigarh, Panchkula, Bilaspur and Panchkula 3 each, 

    Jhahar, Badli, Bahadurgarh and Sonipat 2 each, 

    Samalkha, Dadri, Ambala, Morni, Bapoli, Jagadhri , Mahendragarh, Nilokheri, Ambala, Gurgaon, Barwala, Raipur
    Rani, Israna, Chhachhrauli and Radaur 1 each

  29. Sri regarding withdrawal delay is what I had pointed in my post earlier too

    That is during mid monsoon last few years we are seeing Asia Pacific Jet which should not happen in a monsoon time.

    This in subsequent month delays SWM withdrawal by covering up break period.

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  31. ராஜபாளையம், சிவகாசி, விருதுநகர் எல்லா பகுதிகளிலும் இன்று காலை முதல் சரியான வெய்யில். இத்தினி கூட காற்று க்கு மரங்கள் ஆடவில்லை. வேர்த்துக் கொட்டியதில் சட்டை துணியெல்லாம் கசகசப்பு. அநேகமாக மழை வரவேண்டும்.

  36. If one were to plot the Withdrawal completion dates of Southwest Monsoon as an anomaly against 15th October the traditional withdrawal date then there is a clear delaying trend for the past two decades or so.

    1. That’s why the IMD seems to have pushed their traditional onset date to 21st-22nd Oct in their recent report

  37. This year NEM going to be a very tricky one to track it seems..models are struggling to pick MJO behavior..we may end up with many surprises..it can be 2015 returns or worst like 2016 or balanced like 2020..going to be a very thrilling days ahead..

      1. There seems to be mostly 2 extremes of forecasts so far this year..one group is predicting STN n Central TN to get most rainfall..another favours NTN n SAP…I believe Delta along with NTN n SAP is for maximum rains

  48. Rainfall till morning:

    Solan – 33.6mm

    Sundernagar – 12.8mm

    Una – 16.8mm

    Manali – 24mm

    Shimla – 10.4mm

    Bilaspur – 13mm

    chandigarh – 29.7mm

    chandigarh AP – 28.6mm

    Ambala – 30.2mm

    Karnal – 32.2mm

    Delhi Safdarjung – 27.5mm

    Delhi Lodi Road – 29.4mm

    Delhi Ridge – 27.8mm

    Delhi ayanagar – 14mm

    Aligarh uttar pradesh – 50.6mm

    Muzaffarnagar uttar pradesh – 15.8mm

    Meerut uttar pradesh – 11.6mm

  49. IMD : 

    ♦ A cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over Southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood by tomorrow. It is likely to move westwards. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over central parts of South Bay of Bengal during subsequent 48 hours.

      6. Delhi-NCR is different ,Rest of India is different , SWM declared over Kerala ,the first port of entry into Indian Mainland on a superb sunny day as well this year

  54. Today winds are more streamlined from NE while yesterday it was from North , our bloggers’ weather stations picks the transition at surface level beautifully

  59. Alakkode 91mm
    Payyavoor 73
    Irikkur 59
    Mannarkad 57
    Perinthalmanna 43
    Peermade 42
    Mattannur 40
    Kuttiyaidi 40
    Sholayar 40
    Panniyoor 30
    Kanjirappuzha 30
    Angadippuram 23.4
    Enamakkal 21

  62. Min temperature recorded today:

    Darjeeling – 11c

    Kalimpong – 15c

    Purulia – 19.1c

    Siliguri – 19c

    Imphal – 15c

    Daltonganj jharkhand – 19.3c

    Jamshedpur jharkhand – 19.6c

    Ranchi jharkhand – 17.6c

    Gaya bihar – 19.3c

    Jaipur rajasthan – 19c

    Keonjhargarh orissa – 17.4c

    Hirakud orissa – 19.4c

    Jharsuguda orissa – 19.6c

    Gangtok sikkim – 13.5c

    Tadong sikkim – 14.5c

  65. Today’s post exactly speak about the weather lover’s mind voice, there is always a fever which will accompany the weather watchers especially during NEM as the gaint BOB starts waking up!! Lets hope for the best NEM for all!!

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