Northeast Monsoon 2021 – COMK Outlook

COMK Analysis
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Pluviophiles : A lover of rain; someone who finds joy and peace of mind during rainy days.

Weather Bloggers more often than not are Pluviophiles by heart and it is not surprising when most of them expect to rain almost always even if the climatological factors do not favor. But the ones who attain Zen state are those who are able to put aside their personal wishes and look at events in a detached state so that they are able to infer factors in a more productive manner. While daily / regular weather inferences are more from the perspective of what to expect for the day & whether it is going to rain or not expect for occasional instances when heavy rains or cyclones happen so the daily forecasts become more critical.

But Seasonal Outlooks are a different ball game not only from the perspective of extremely high volatility but also providing directions to a lot of stake holders from different walks of life not to forget the farming community whose entire cropping life cycle depends on identifying the long term weather patterns reasonably well. In this context we have given this year’s Outlook for Northeast Monsoon keeping in mind being realistic in our estimates of how things could be shaped up based on our understanding of prevailing global & local factors.

Please note this outlook is not official and has been created purely from the perspective of an effort to understand weather & provide for some directions to interested bloggers from an academic point of view. Please following IMD for official weather forecasts. The outlook is based on various inputs like Prevailing IOD, ENSO, expected MJO movement & is based on long term OLR outputs from various weather models as inferred by us.

We look forward to hearing your views on the Outlook. Happy Monsooning.

75 thoughts on “Northeast Monsoon 2021 – COMK Outlook

  1. I have already logged in but unable to vote. It says “you must login to vote”..

    Please note tat i haven’t logged through Fb or Google .. just created an account in this tool…

  2. Rainfall in nov1st week,2016 from the north bay depression. Tripura,southern assam,Nagaland got heavy rains:

    5th Nov:
    Arundhutinagar Tripura – 13cm

    Khowai tripura – 12cm

    Agartala AP – 12cm

    Kailashahar – 12cm

    Kamalpur tripura – 11cm

    bishalgarh tripura – 11cm

    Gokulpur tripura – 11cm

    Udaipur tripura – 10cm

    Belonia, Sonamura, B P Ghat and Karimganj – 9cm

    6th Nov :
    B P Ghat assam – 13cm

    Gokulpur tripura – 11cm

    Udaipur tripura – 11cm

    Amarpur tripura – 11cm

    Bishalgarh tripura – 11cm

    khowai tripura – 10cm

    Haflong assam – 10cm

    wokha nagaland – 10cm

    Kailashahar tripura – 8cm

    Karimganj assam – 8cm

    Belonia tripura – 8cm

    jharnapani nagaland – 7cm

    Lumding assam – 7cm

    Matijuri assam – 5cm

    Bokajan assam – 5cm

    Sonamura tripura – 5cm

  3. We will try a new comment platform. Depending on results we will continue or we may have to go back to Discus. Please do share your feedback on how you are able to access & comment in the new platform. Thanks

    1. My small feedback.. with Google or fb login we cannot modify the profile names.. so we will not know who is msging from which place.. example.. I used to have profile name as Jagan_GudalurNilgiris…

      Although this comments tool allows tat naming facility, it doesn’t allow us to vote.. tats a major drawback I feel..

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