Pluviophiles : A lover of rain; someone who finds joy and peace of mind during rainy days.
Weather Bloggers more often than not are Pluviophiles by heart and it is not surprising when most of them expect to rain almost always even if the climatological factors do not favor. But the ones who attain Zen state are those who are able to put aside their personal wishes and look at events in a detached state so that they are able to infer factors in a more productive manner. While daily / regular weather inferences are more from the perspective of what to expect for the day & whether it is going to rain or not expect for occasional instances when heavy rains or cyclones happen so the daily forecasts become more critical.
But Seasonal Outlooks are a different ball game not only from the perspective of extremely high volatility but also providing directions to a lot of stake holders from different walks of life not to forget the farming community whose entire cropping life cycle depends on identifying the long term weather patterns reasonably well. In this context we have given this year’s Outlook for Northeast Monsoon keeping in mind being realistic in our estimates of how things could be shaped up based on our understanding of prevailing global & local factors.
Please note this outlook is not official and has been created purely from the perspective of an effort to understand weather & provide for some directions to interested bloggers from an academic point of view. Please following IMD for official weather forecasts. The outlook is based on various inputs like Prevailing IOD, ENSO, expected MJO movement & is based on long term OLR outputs from various weather models as inferred by us.
We look forward to hearing your views on the Outlook. Happy Monsooning.