The last couple of days say rains return over parts of Tamil Nadu. In particular South TN saw moderate to heavy rains in many places with even parts of Kerala seeing rains yesterday. North TN though was relatively dry except for some rains up to Pondicherry latitude. On Friday few pockets of Chennai saw light rains that lasted for a few minutes. The returning Easterlies though brought back humidity along with the moisture.
The seasonal outlook released by IMD for March to May does indicate Peninsular India may not face a harsh summer. Coastal areas of Tamil Nadu though does indicate a probability for higher than normal maximum temperatures during this period. But it remains to be seen how much of it will translate in real time conditions. It is also essential to point out despite being La Nina Year January 2025 was the 2nd warmest since 1901 in terms of mean temperature during January.
Weather models indicate weather could turn drier from today. Even South TN which saw rains over the past couple of days may see cessation of rains. As clear skies return due to dry weather we can expect an increase in day time temperatures. Interior areas of North TN and adjoining Rayalaseema region is likely to see an increase in afternoon temperatures. From today gradually maximum temperatures may start to climb up for the next week to 10 days.
During this period weather models indicate parts of North TN, particularly the interior areas, may see day time temperatures stay 2 / 3°C above normal. Coastal areas like Chennai may benefit from moderation offered by the sea. But even these places may see an increase in humidity making afternoons uncomfortable. Towards end of this week / early next week places like Vellore / Tiruttani may start seeing afternoon temperatures get closer to 100°F.
On the rainfall front most of Tamil Nadu may see dry weather prevail for the upcoming week to 10 days. There is a chance the next Easterly wave may impact parts of South TN subsequently. In the meanwhile Kerala may see weak convective thunderstorm activity persist this week due to moisture pushed from East.