It is ironical to post about NEM 2019 winding up on a day when parts of Delta has been recording very good rains. Nagappattinam & Karaikal have recorded more than 5 cms while Aduthurai has recorded more than 3 cms as of 5:30 AM today morning. Karaikal Radar image indicates rains are likely to continue during the morning hours for Delta region and subsequently to some of the interior places as well.
The steering winds remain a concern so unlike the earlier rainfall episodes of Northeast Monsoon this year the rain bands may not move deep inland with possibly places up to about 50 – 75 kms from the coast getting moderate rains. Places beyond it will possibly see scattered rains as the effect starts to wane.
If one were to look at a slightly larger scale things become more clearer on the state of NEM 2019. Even someone who is not following weather actively will say as we get to Christmas the rains should stop for us. As we have mentioned often the movement of ITCZ decides how Northeast Monsoon behaves as we get to the last few days of a calendar year. Satellite image indicates the band of convection which is indicative of ITCZ is seen south of Equator.
Similarly if one were to see the wind charts the trade winds appear to be meeting south of Equator in sync with the clouding pattern confirming ITCZ has indeed moved South of Equator and is well on its way towards Australian Monsoon. Without the support of ITCZ the instances of Easterly waves bringing major rainfall episodes look less likely and they will possibly restrict the major rains to parts of South TN, Delta Districts & Sri Lanka.
On a lighter vein among the COMK bloggers the most important sign for NEM end card is when our own data man Natarajan starts tracking rainfall numbers from the Australian Outback. The last few days has seen Nattu post regularly about likely disturbances in Australia & rainfall estimates which pretty much sums up the state of NEM 2019.
Today as mentioned above parts of Delta & South TN could see moderate spells of rains while one or two places could see heavy spells of rains during the morning hours. Chennai could see some light rains at times during the morning hours with cloudy skies keeping it pleasant.
On behalf of all of us COMK we wish all our well wishers Merry Christmas