Since the slow down of Monsoon Weather in Tamil Nadu has been mostly dry. Except for extremely isolated rains along the Western Ghats & some parts of South TN it has been dry pretty much elsewhere. North Tamil Nadu has been getting heat induced rains but these have been extremely isolated & short lived. Last night saw many parts of Chennai receive passing showers and these were once again of low intensity as has been the pattern over the last couple of days or so.
In the meanwhile Southwest Monsoon continues to stall around Goa with conditions still not turning conducive enough for further progress up the latitudes. One of the key issues that has been bogging down the monsoon progress has been the depth of Westerlies. As one can observe in the charts given herewith at 700 hPa wind level (3 kms altitude) the Southwest winds have reached only around Goa latitude. North of Goa the winds are more Northwesterly bringing in dry air from the Arabian Peninsula which one needs to keep in mind for further progress.
Similarly at slightly lower altitude the 850 hPa winds (1.5 kms altitude) which bring in the Cross Equatorial Moisture has reached up to the Konkan belt, around Ratnagiri, while beyond that the winds are once again from W/NW. This could explain the reason why Konkan continues to get these spells of rains while North of Konkan the rains are still isolated and not showing the monsoon surge one would associate with at this time of the year.
As things stand we are looking at some improvement in the lower level Cross Equatorial winds to move up the latitude towards the later part of the week but upper level winds continue to show a disconnect to the rest of the monsoon. The moving up of the lower latitude winds could bring in some rains to Mumbai by Thursday / Friday whether it would translate into Monsoon Onset is still a billion dollar question.
Closer home Weather in Tamil Nadu is expected to remain dry mostly with North TN continuing to be one of the hottest areas in Southern Peninsular India under the influence of Westerly winds. Chennai is likely to see a day time temperature around 36 / 37 degrees while places in the interior could see temperatures that are a degree or so higher. Unlike the last couple of days there is a possibility of sea breeze moving in slightly earlier today to bring some respite.
Madurai has been the hottest place in the state for the last couple of days and is likely to remain the hottest today as well with temperatures staying closer to 39 degrees.