Like most large scale atmospheric events southwest monsoon is also an oscillating phenomenon. But it is an understatement if one feels it has swung like a pendulum this year. Unfortunately the pendulum has stayed longer over weaker phase of monsoon. Briefly the pendulum swung to an active phase like how we saw during late June / early July. This phase also coincided with the first active phase of monsoon 2026 between 2nd and 7th July. The first break phase immediately followed this from 11th July. This break phase is likely to end in a couple of days as a fresh Low forms over North bay.
The LPA that is likely to form in the next 24 hours over North Bay will play a role in reviving monsoon dynamics. But the larger question though whether the Monsoon 2026 can kick on for a long active spell. Over the past couple of months we have seen El Nino continue to develop. The latest weekly Nino 3.4 region SST anomaly stands at 1.3°C which puts it under moderate El Nino conditions. During this phase we have seen the base Nino state interfere with MJO as it moves across Pacific Ocean. After a brief transit over Indian Ocean MJO now remains stalled over the Pacific Ocean closer to Date line.
Forecasts suggest it may slowly start moving across Western Hemisphere to reach the Indian Ocean in a weakened state. This may start a fresh global movement from Indian Ocean around late July. But once again but there is a very high probability the transit over Indian Ocean may be quick. With El Nino expected to strengthen the pattern of stall over Pacific Ocean may repeat again during August. All this could mean while Monsoon 2026 is expected to benefit from the LPA forming in North Bay there remains long term question marks on this season.
Meanwhile the development of the LPA is likely to provide an opportunity for thunderstorms over the plains of Tamil Nadu too. While today may be a bit early for thunderstorms to form tomorrow there is a decent change. Friday to Sunday looks good for one day of widespread thunderstorms over North Tamil Nadu. As is the case with Monsoon every spell, short or long, is now essential for thunderstorms as well over the plains. With monsoon remaining weaker than normal the trend of hot afternoons are set to continue over the leeward plains of Peninsular East Coast.