The UAC off the Sri Lankan coast is expected to develop into a Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal area by IMD around 13th. While the development of the low is pretty much now a very firm possibility the future evolution of things from there is anybody’s guess.
Based on surface level wind analysis there is a developing low off the Sri Lankan coast to its west. There are a few models which expect the low to relocate to the open waters of Bay of Bengal to the NE of Sri Lanka over the next couple of days.
A couple of models expect the low to move in a westward direction and search the open waters of Arabian Sea, a region now extremely conducive for the development of any disturbance. While the movement of any disturbance is a factor of the steering winds which is an atmospheric function most often than not the formation of low owes a lot to the ground level condition which possibly points out a westward shift by the disturbance to Arabian Sea.
Models have presented diverging views on the possible genesis of the low hence the future course also is diverging both in terms of the track and areas of impact as far as rains are concerned.
While South Tamil Nadu and Kerala is now expected to get some heavy rains irrespective of where the low surfaces the prospects of North Tamil Nadu & Chennai would depend on the actual events panning out. In the meanwhile Chennai will continue to have cloudy skies and day time temperatures would be in the lower 30s for the next couple of days.