The Low Pressure area over Bay of Bengal continued to persist along the Equatorial waters straddling the Andaman Sea & off Sumatra Islands. It has been pretty much stationary over the region for the past 24 hours or so as it tries to consolidate itself into a Well Marked Low. The wind charts give enough hints on why the consolidation has been slow.
A broad circulation pattern is seen at upper level possibly due to cross Equatorial Westerlies along the Equator. This is possibly preventing the circulation to consolidate itself and intensify in due course. The wind charts also indicate why thunderstorms will pretty much be restricted to Kerala & along the Western Ghats with most parts of Tamil Nadu seeing streamlined Easterlies.
Nevertheless with ITCZ now prevailing North of Equator there is support for the LPA to consolidate. But larger scale dynamics that is evolving is a worry though with MJO expected to move further East towards West Pacific early next week. This could mean Bay of Bengal & the eastern half of Indian Sub Continent could come under the trailing edge of MJO bringing suppressed atmospheric conditions along with it.
This is likely to impact the overall development and intensification of the Bay Low. This potentially could also mean change in where this system could end up over the course of next week.
Till then pick up your popcorn and wait for the action to unfold now that due to COVID no multiplexes are operational this could turn out to be a much needed thriller