Northeast Monsoon Season officially runs between October 1st and December 31st. During this period Westerlies hold sway during the early days of October until Southwest Monsoon completes it’s withdrawal. Similarly Easterlies continue to persist until well into the new calendar year though the season ends by end December.
Though Easterlies persist until March / April rains don’t happen regularly unless supportive conditions are available. The primary reason is because the ITCZ is firmly entrenched in Southern Hemisphere. Satellite images indicate Southern Indian Ocean has pretty much warmed up on either sides while the Central Ocean areas around the Indian Sub Continent alone is holding up in the Northern Indian Ocean using the strong remnant Positive IOD.
A cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep areas is likely to drift West slowly. Equatorial Bay though is of our interest for us. A trough of Easterlies persisting over the Equatorial waters is likely to bring the next rainfall episode over the coastal areas of TN which is currently seeing drier conditions except for South TN. Wind charts indicate the dryness over Coastal TN through Northerly winds. Influenced by the trough of Easterlies the Northerlies will be pushed up giving some moderate rains over Coastal TN from early Tuesday morning.