“One man’s meat is another man’s poison” is a very famous adage that was first recorded in 1576. The surprise rainfall event on Wednesday over North TN became the latest example of this. Many felt it was a welcome respite from the hot weather that was firming up. But ask the farmers around North TN many would not share a similar view. Watermelon farmers in particular have been dealt with poor cards all season. La Nina influenced conditions meant so far we have not seen sustained spell of hot weather over Peninsular India. Unseasonal rains not only influences demand but also supply due to withering of flowers. Many such stories could be heard from other farmers as well when unseasonal rains happen.
A look at the atmospheric conditions and prevailing weather patterns does indicate though a spell of hot and dry weather is on the cards. The last couple of weeks have seen fairly intense thunderstorms hit parts of Peninsular India. Looking at larger scale atmospheric dynamics MJO may remain weak over the next week or two. With influence of MJO seen over West Pacific we can expect a bit of suppressed conditions over Indian Ocean leading to hot and dry weather conditions.
Operational weather models are also consistent about Peninsular east coast remaining hot. Afternoon temperatures are likely to remain a couple of degrees higher than normal for most of the remaining days of April. The adjoining Rayalaseema region is likely to see temperatures soar up to 42 / 43°C in the coming days. This is likely to influence weather over North Tamil Nadu as well, particularly when continental winds strengthen due to diurnal effect.
Chennai and suburbs may benefit from sea breeze during this period but not before temperatures reach up to 37 / 38°C on most days. Later next week there is a very high possibility of Chennai AP recording the first 40°C of the year. During the 2nd round of active summer conditions Chennai AP came very close to 40°C. It recorded 39.7°C on 12th April when most of North TN was seeing abnormally hot weather.