Fluid Monsoon Dynamics set for a Bollywood Thriller style Climax

There is a lot of commonalities between the Indian Monsoon and a Bollywood thriller. Just like the Bollywood movies the Monsoon weaves its magic keeping the weather watchers to the edge of the seat.  And like most thrillers the opening & the climax are the ones that are eagerly watched by weather bloggers.  If southwest monsoon onset over Kerala gives goosebumps to those in the west coast the withdrawal over Peninsular India gives a similar feeling to those eagerly awaiting Northeast Monsoon in the East Coast.

Now with this year’s Monsoon movie reaching its climax its time for the edge of the seat thriller which as usual promises to provide another nail biting finish.  As always the Indian Monsoon is full of fluid dynamics with wide range of supporting cast providing necessary impetus time to time.  If one were to look at the prevailing monsoon dynamics its easy to wonder which turn would be the next as the monsoon roller coaster ride shows no sign of slowing down.


As one can observe from the synoptic chart the Southwest Monsoon withdrawal for sure is going behind schedule.  Is this a cause of concern for those eagerly awaiting Northeast Monsoon?  Yes certainly it is cause of concern but there is an optimism that monsoon dynamics always surprises us when we least expect.  There have been years when the shift between Southwest Monsoon to Northeast Monsoon has been swift so not all is lost yet.

On the West Coast there is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation that has been giving rains to parts of Gujarat where under normal scale monsoon should have been over.  But the key dynamics that will decide shape of things to come is on the East Coast.  A pair of Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation that could trigger divergent movement if they intensify.  The one in the North Bay is expected by many models to develop into a possible low which could delay the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon.  If the one in Central Bay develops it could possibly create the trigger for the transition to take place by alternating the wind pattern at the right places.

Providing a good guess on Why Kattappa killed Bahubali is possibly easier than estimating how the dynamics will work over the next few days. Fasten your seat belts as the Monsoon Movie reaches its climax and for sure it promises to be another thriller