As people wait with bated breath for the onset of Northeast Monsoon for the year 2015 the wheels of motion for Northeast Monsoon has started to churn slowly in the form of a disturbance in Southwest Bay that is likely to evolve into a Low Pressure Area bringing in rains from Monday night over Coastal Tamil Nadu
In the South West Bay of Bengal east of Colombo under the influence of an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation a possible Low Pressure Area is likely to form in within the next 24 hours. This is likely to act as the trigger for the onset of Northeast Monsoon over the next couple of days. Expected to form to the East of Sri Lanka along its southern periphery over the next few days it is expected to track in a N/NW direction towards the Indian Sub Continent
As the Low Pressure in Bay moves in a N/NW direction towards the Indian Coast it would start to trigger rains over Tamil Nadu & Coastal AP with rains expected to start from Monday midnight as things stand for many places of Coastal Tamil Nadu.
But further evolution of this Low Pressure Area into an organized system could very well depend on the possible development of another tropical disturbance in Arabian Sea which a few models are expecting to be better organized and primed for potential development into a stronger disturbance.
Under the current conditions with complex multiple scenario potentials we think it is prudent to take one day at a time and understand the evolving environment more objectively. There is a lot of inconsistency in the model runs that do not provide enough confidence for providing objective understanding of the current situation. Hence we prefer to wait and watch rather than make assumptions. Be assured we will continue to provide rational objective analysis of the evolving weather events.