As Southwest Monsoon continues to be weak over West Coast of India, parts of Tamil Nadu have been receiving convective evening thunderstorms. On the one hand while most Chennaites look forward to getting a spell or two of these thunderstorms in order to replenish the ground water resources locally one should keep in mind the probability of convective thunderstorms improve when the monsoon goes through the break period and remain weak over the west coast.
Officially now we are in the break monsoon period with the standardized rainfall anomaly over the core monsoon area falling below -1 for three consecutive days. For the sake of the dams we need the monsoon to pick up fast as almost all our major dams are dependent on the southwest monsoon. Our seasonal dam tracker now indicates the Cauvery Basin is showing some signs of improvement with all the four dams in Karnataka now seeing much better storage levels when compared to a month back. Though this is some good news we need drastic improvement in the levels for us to breathe a sigh of relief.
Things are certainly looking good for another day of thunderstorms over a few areas of Tamil Nadu today with North Tamil Nadu area well placed for some convective activity. Numerical models indicate the areas around Kolar / Mulbagal / Palamner is likely to trigger some early thunderstorm activity under the influence of the lingering Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over parts of AP. Models are indicating a day of firm sea breeze activity which will further enhance the convective activity as the storms move towards the coast making it a good day of thunderstorms for North TN with Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, TIruvallur, Kanchipuram, parts of Villupuram, Pondicherry and Chennai possibly in line to receive some of these spells of rains.
Lets hope Chennai receives another spell or two of good thunderstorms before the monsoon picks up next week which is a far more important need of the hour.
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