equilibrium : a state of adjustment between opposing or divergent influences or elements. – “Merriam Webster”
Many a times we have mentioned about how the prospects of West & East Coast of Peninsular India swings like a Pendulum with the two coasts alternating between active & passive phase of precipitation depending on Active Monsoon or Break in Monsoon conditions. Over the past few years we have seen a few instances where a pseudo state of Equilibrium happens. 2018 August surge, 2021 July surge have seen places in North Tamil Nadu receive direct monsoon rains with thunderstorms developing very close to the coast due to friction between Land & Sea.
Similarly the last few days large parts of Peninsular India has been relatively dry with very light rains seen in the Ghats, isolated rains seen along the West coast and surprisingly very little thunderstorm activity in the leeward areas of Tamil Nadu too though Chennai & suburbs have been seeing some passing showers for the past two days. We are possibly seeing the second version of the pseudo state of Equilibrium now prevailing over Peninsular India, a relatively drier atmospheric conditions.
With the Monsoon Low continuing to persist over Central India, it is gently pushing the Monsoon trough northward to trigger break in monsoon conditions in a couple of days time as it fades away under the intrusion of dry continental air from the Northwest. This will also trigger thunderstorms over the interior parts of Tamil Nadu as westerly winds slow down and bring atmospheric instability along with it & associated convergence. But till then mostly it will be isolated thunderstorms in Tamil Nadu restricted to fast moving spell of rains favoring the coastal areas more than the interior areas. Interestingly even these fast moving spell of rains along the coastal areas is coinciding with a slight uptick in the rains over the Western Ghats of Peninsular India. Possibly increased moisture push could be the reason for both the increases.
Weather models indicate coastal areas of Tamil Nadu to see isolated rains today also in the form of sharp spell of light to moderate rains in a few places while tomorrow possibly more places could see rains with slight increase in the quantum as well.