Yesterday’s Well Marked Low has become a Depression in Bay of Bengal and is likely to become a Deep Depression in the next 12 – 24 hours or so. As we explained in our post a couple of days back the progress has been slow with the system slowly but firmly moving towards the open waters of Bay in order to intensify and get better organized. IMD is expecting the Depression in Bay of Bengal to become a Deep Depression within 24 hours and a Cyclone during the subsequent 24 hours.
Most models indicate a North / Northwest Movement for the next 24 to 36 hours or so after which a clear skew to the West is seen. The crucial point that could decide the possible landfall & Impact area is going to be how much latitude will the Depression in Bay of Bengal climb in its NNW movement before taking a change of direction to the West. There is a certain amount of model divergence after the current phase N/NW movement with a few models indicating a NW track and some of them indicating a more Westward track.
Taking into account the possible positioning of the ridge over the Indian Sub Continent a W/SW movement cannot yet be ruled out at this stage. Most regular weather observers would remember the Thane Cyclone of 2011 which took a W/SW movement under pressure from the ridge over Central India ending up at Pondicherry when models were indicating a Chennai landfall about 24 hours earlier.
All in All it would be prudent to wait for another 24 to 36 hours observe the N/NW movement before coming to a conclusion on the likely movement and impact areas for the final phase of this Depression in Bay of Bengal. One thing for sure we could see slow progress and hence patience is going to be the buzz word
On the rain front under the influence of the disturbed conditions in Bay there is some chance of isolated rains over the Coastal areas of Tamil Nadu and South AP. Dont be surprised if you get to see some passing showers in Chennai.