This NEM season has seen a lot of debate Can Astrology Predict Rainfall? With claims and counter claims about how good or bad astrology could be in predicting rains well in advance compared to Numerical Weather Models. The reality is somewhere in between.
There is no denial there is a science involved in the Almanac’s as well in terms of expected planetary positions and its relative impact to the happenings in Earth. If we thought only India has Panchangams we are mistaken Astro Meteorology has been there for centuries around the world across ancient civilizations like Mesopotamia In the year 1686 Dr. J. Goad had authored a book Astro-Meteorologica which has given the principles and rules of forecasting weather astrologically. To give an idea into the possible science involved this is an example of Solar Ingress Chart which Astro Meteorologists develop as part of their weather forecasting
India is not the only country to have Panchangams giving tentative schedule for the farming community based on the principles of Astro Meteorology. Farmers Almanac has been giving such type of weather outlooks for the last almost 2 centuries in USA & Canada. To understand how good or bad they were this will give an idea.
In this context Jayasree Saranathan, a PhD in Astrology is keen in is keen in bringing the ancient Indian science of Astrology to weather forecasting through scientific means and making the forecasts better and more consistent has created a weather outlook for the year 2016. She was the author of our post on the Lost Water Bodies of Chennai,
We at Chennaiyil Oru Mazhaikaalam are going to help her in providing an update on the actual rainfall events during the year so that we could understand how close the outlook was to the actual events. This is going to be a learning for all of us involved in terms of understanding whether the ancient Indian Science of Astro Meteorology could live up to the modern day needs of scientific reasoning.
This is going to be the first in the series of articles we are going to run where Jayasree would give us the expected event based on her interpretation while the weather bloggers of COMK would be taking up the task of correlating the actual weather events with the forecast to understand how close / far away was the prediction to the actual events.
Now for the Outline of Year 2016, this is generic in nature to give an understanding of what to expect. Jayasree would continue to provide specific updates based on events unveiling like Garbaottam etc.
- The Durmukhi year prediction is that there will be heavy rainfall in the 2nd half of the season.This is supported by planetary combinations in the Tamil month of Aadi, Avani and Karthigai.
- Pre-monsoon thunderstorm showers will be there in April- May. But the south west monsoon will not keep up its date of arrival. It will be delayed. Clouds will gather but will be decimated. Planets in direct opposition (180 degrees apart) spoil the rains. At the time of expected arrival of SW monsoon in 2nd half of May and first week of June, planets of importance to rainfall (Mercury and Venus) are 180 degrees away from Saturn.
- SW monsoon will pick up in July. From July 7th to September 12th, SW monsoon will be active. The places that are due to get benefited by SW monsoon in those months, will get good rainfall. The month of July sees the combination of Mercury and Venus in the watery sign of Cancer without any other planet in between. This is a good combination for heavy rainfall. Again from that time onwards, all the planets are going to be in front of the Sun. This is also a good factor for rainfall. These features happening in the rainy season as it progresses, is good for rainfall.
- There will be deceptive indicators for rainfall in Purattasi, but it will be disappointing in Purattasi. Soon after the Sun enters Virgo (Purattasi), the rainfall combinations get disturbed.
- From October 27th onwards (prior to Deepavali) rainfall features become very favourable. From then onwards until December, rainfall combinations are very good as it was this year (2015). That means NE monsoon will be bountiful.
- Particularly from November 16th onwards, soon after Karthigai month had begun, the same rainfall combination as it existed this year reappears in 2016. November 18, 19 and 20 of 2016 has the same combination as it existed on December 1st and 2nd of 2015 when record rainfall occurred. This continues till the end of Karthigai in 2016.
- This tallies with Durmukhi year prediction of heavy rainfall in the second half of the season.
These are all general outlines. There are many features to be observed from the time of Garbottam (29th December 2015). I will write them in detail as and when those periods begin. These features must be subject to scrutiny to fine tune them and make them more authentic. As and when meteorological observation is being done, these features also can be cross checked to ascertain their dependability because there may be so many minor features which we may miss in the course of assessment.
After the recent rains, I have started checking with your website. One feature that has been found accurate is the transit of Mercury in front of Venus and / or Sun bringing in air currents. After Mercury went ahead 6th December 2015), you reported air current in peninsular India pushing the clouds towards south of Chennai and TN. Usually when Mercury is in front of Venus, winds will spoil rains. If Venus is in front of Mercury, there will be good rains. If Venus and Mercury are close to each other with Venus in the front, there will be plentiful rains. The month of Adi in 2016 witnesses such a combination. If any planet is 180 away from them in such a scenario, rains will not occur.