Bay of Bengal Current & Prospective Disturbances Analysis

COMK Analysis

The current depression in Bay of Bengal has pretty much ended its life cycle with Shear and Dry Air killing any chance of becoming anything big.  Its currently to the ENE of Chennai and is expected to wind up towards the Indian Coast towards South AP / North TN,  whether it would indeed reach the coast is something still to be seen.  As it potentially moves towards the coast there is a chance for some rains for North TN tomorrow.

In the meanwhile there is a potential disturbance which IMD is also tracking with interest.  This system is now to the East of Malay Peninsula as a well marked low. It is expected to cross over the Malay Peninsula and track towards the Andaman Islands in the days to come.

Models suggest this disturbance could hit the TN / South AP Coast as anything between a Depression and a Cyclone.

COMK would prefer to wait and watch until the disturbance crosses Andaman Islands before taking a call on how and where it would reach the Indian Peninsula.  There are two land interactions which the disturbance has to encounter along with moderate shear zone over the Malay Peninsula.  Additionally the current SST around Andaman Islands is not conducive for growth as well.

Over the years only 2 disturbances that have originated in the region has gone on to hit the Indian Coast as Depression and above that pretty much sums up the probability of the system happening.

It would be prudent to wait and watch.