Bay Disturbance continues to Struggle, Unlikely to Become a Major Force

The last few days we have received a lot queries about possible Cyclone in Bay and whether Rains will happen in Tamil Nadu.  Possibly the Fascination of a Rare January Cyclone had triggered a lot of interest in the social media. Despite receiving a lot of messages asking us about the Rare January Cyclone and possible impact areas we consciously stayed away from talking about it due to the evolving scenario.

Yes January Cyclones are indeed rare in Bay of Bengal and they are rare because of how conditions evolve at this time of the year.  As we had mentioned in our post on December 20th the seasonal shift to Southern Hemisphere happens around this time of the year as Summer evolves there.  The dynamics are skewed towards Southern Hemisphere hence the quite times for Bay of Bengal.  Those seasons when the Northeast Monsoon extends into January we might see the occasional late disturbances in Bay.  This year is one another instance of Monsoon Conditions continuing with Bay remaining active in the Low latitudes around Equator.

As one can see from the chart attached there are two competing disturbances developing on either side of the equator with the seasonal dynamics favoring the disturbance in Southern Hemisphere under the protection ITCZ could offer to it.  While models are not developing anything in the Southern Hemisphere earlier slowly the probability of a Tropical Depression is increasing in Southern Hemisphere indicating the changing conditions.  Additionally the Disturbance in Bay of Bengal is too close to the Equator to generate enough Spin in the absence of Coriolis Forces.  This is impacting its organizational capability as well allowing things to become better for its cousin in Southern Hemisphere to slowly consolidate itself.

Considering how things are evolving yes we are likely to see a Low Pressure Area develop around Andaman Islands over the next 24 – 48 hours possibly.  When it moves up the latitude and gets to slightly better conditions in Bay we could possibly see it consolidate itself as a Depression.  For this it has to get out of the Equatorial Waters as soon as possible.  As long as it stays around the current area it is unlikely to organize itself into a Major Force.

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