Active Monsoon conditions to give heavy rains to West Coast

With Southwest Monsoon making quick progress over the West Coast many parts of Southern Peninsular India has now come under the influence of Monsoon conditions.  As we have mentioned in the past there is no direct correlation between delayed onset of monsoon and the overall rainfall performance for the year.

This year while it was initially expected the delayed onset could also come as a weak onset the current conditions have allayed that fear of weak onset with the offshore trough and upper air cylconic circulation working in tandem to give heavy rainfall to many places of West Coast.  At the time of posting many places in Karnataka particularly in North Karnataka have got rainfall ranging from 4 to 6 cms.   Similarly places like Anakayam, Nilambur in Kerala have also been getting good rains for the last couple of days. Parts of Kanyakumari district in Tamil Nadu has been getting good rains for the last two days with the trend continuing yesterday as well.


Monsoon has now covered all of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and many parts of Karnataka as it tries to make up for the delay in onset.  Over the next couple of days we are likely to see Monsoon Onset over most parts of Konkan & Maharashtra as well as conditions continue to be conducive for the progress.


With the off shore trough continuing to be strong and aided by the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation which now lies off the Karnataka & Goa coasts in Arabian Sea heavy rainfall is expected to happen over most parts of Coastal Karnataka and parts of North Kerala. It would be no surprise if the Southwest Monsoon heavyweights like Madikeri, Agumbe, Hulikal etc start recording in excess of 100 mm rains over the next day or two.  With the monsoon surge fairly strong many places in Interior Karnataka are also likely to see spells of rains with North Interior Karnataka particularly expected to enjoy fairly rainy day in most places with one or two places getting moderate to heavy spells of rains.  Parts of West Interior Tamil Nadu could also get isolated spells of rains while one or two places could get sharp spell of rains like how R K Pet got a quick burst of rains recording about 30 mm rains in one hour today around late evening.

Chennai could see partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 36 / 37 degrees with not much prospects of thunderstorms as things stand.  We will have to bide our time and wait for the monsoon to take its first break for our thunderstorm activity to pick up once again in East Coast.