Active Bay of Bengal gets ready for the next Disturbance

Even before the post landfall impact of the Depression Complete  Bay of Bengal is getting ready for the next tropical disturbance.  After making landfall as a Depression south of Karaikal in the early hours of 2nd December now the remnants of Cyclone Nada lie as a weak low pressure over the western edges of Peninsular India on its way drifting out towards Arabian Sea.  Thanks to the post Nada disturbed atmosphere Chennai & surrounding areas got another day of rains with once again South Chennai & Suburbs enjoying the best spells.


In the meanwhile Bay of Bengal is ready for the next tropical disturbance being handed over by West Pacific in the form of a pulse moving in from South China Sea crossing over the Malay peninsula.  The area to the East of Andaman Islands could be the area where we could possibly see the Low Pressure form and possibly become a Depression as it crosses Andaman Islands.  As of now its too early to talk of landfall and possible movement. Initially the movement is expected to be W/NW with the wind flow and after becoming a Depression we could possibly see more skew to the North in the track.


In the meanwhile if one were to look at how historically disturbances that have either formed near Andaman or crossed over from West Pac during the month of December they possibly point how things could evolve.  As the genesis points move further East the probability of the cyclone taking a Northeast Recurve seems to increase which potentially indicates how the probability does not seem to particularly favour Tamil Nadu.  Nevertheless we should wait for genesis and watch the early days of tracks before coming to a conclusion on the likely impact area.