On behalf of all of us at COMK we wish everyone a Happy Pongal / Happy Makara Sankranti. It is indeed ironic as we get ready to celebrate Pongal / Sankranti we bid adieu to Northeast Monsoon. IMD in their bulletin yesterday confirmed conditions are favourable for cessation of Northeast Monsoon rains. As monsoon slows down a period of dry weather is up ahead for us.
The monsoon season statistically runs between 1st October to 31st December. But often the rains spill into January as well. More so when La Nina conditions prevail. Often these rains may not be beneficial to the farming community. Instead may come as a disruption as crops get closer to harvest. We saw two rainfall events extending into January.
The first was a trough that gave heavy rains to parts of Chennai and suburbs. The second was on account of a rare Deep Depression that could have intensified into a cyclone if conditions were a little better. But despite both these rainfall episodes on the whole Northeast Monsoon this year has given more negatives than positives. The number of districts that saw a deficit monsoon outnumbered the number of districts that saw excess.
Over the next week to 10 days with dry weather setting in we may see cooler nights persist over most parts of Peninsular India. Weather models indicate a weak Easterly wave activity to move into Bay around 20th. It remains to be seen if it would be strong enough to influence weather over Peninsular India. Until then it is going to be dry weather with near normal or slightly below normal temperatures for most of Tamil Nadu. Peninsular West Coast may see warm afternoons while the East coast enjoys salubrious weather.
For the next few days there would be no weather updates as we head for a seasonal break. It is also time to look back at things that went wrong during the season. A period of weather detox as well after a long and stressful monsoon season.