As one wakes up to clear skies across most of Tamil Nadu it may be easy to forget NEM 2025 started off on a strong note. The cumulative rainfall for October as on date is 233.9 mm for TN & PDC. This is about 41% more than the long period average. The last good day for TN & PDC happened on 23rd October. The seasonal performance as of 22nd October was 82% excess over long period average. As the saying goes “all good must come to an end” this bull run also has come to an end.
In terms of seasonal rainfall 60% of the NEM rainfall is contributed by November and December. Considering TN & PDC needs only about 89 mm more to reach the annual normal rainfall only time can answer whether this break is a blessing in disguise. As things stand we are looking at a spell of dry weather that may extend for the next week to 10 days. Ensembles are fairly in sync with the track of the next LPA in Bay. Coming into Andaman sea it may move up towards North Bay creating less impact for Peninsular India.
Clear skies are likely to continue during this period over most of Peninsular India. Drier weather conditions along with clear skies would also mean increased afternoon temperatures. Weather models indicate most of Tamil Nadu may see afternoon temperatures stay 2 – 4°C above normal during this period. This is likely to change when the Easterlies make a gradual return around 8th or 9th of November. Until then we may have to bear the summer like conditions during Peak NEM time.
While rains may return around Sunday / Monday in the form of thunderstorms afternoons may remain hot. We may have to see in real time how much rains actually translate during this period thunderstorms which may benefit interior areas more. It may be almost like a fresh phase of transition thunderstorms though it may not be as widespread as October 1st fortnight.
It is ironic to have Day time temperature anomaly chart as part of today’s post. But that is the reality as things stand with NEM 2025 taking a break after early power play. Some may wonder what is the status of NEM 2025 beyond this period. It is not time yet to worry on the prospects of NEM 2025.