Southwest Monsoon continues to be dual faced with parts of Central India seeing non stop rains and Peninsular India seeing weak conditions. Never ending train of pulses from South China Sea into Central / North Bay has brought about weeks of continuous rains over the region. While Peninsular India may have not been completely dry the Kerala Daily Rainfall chart is an indication of how things are. Currently the dual Monsoon Low pretty much sums up how Monsoon has set up over Central India this year so far.
The two monsoon lows, one over Gangetic West Bengal and the other over North MP and East Rajasthan, will bring widespread heavy to very heavy rains over the region. Both the lows are expected to move in a WNW direction bringing rains along the path as they move. In the meanwhile there is some good news on the Monsoon front for Peninsular India. An area of disturbance developing over South Bay could bring back some momentum back over west coast.
Gradually we can see increase in intensity of the rains over Peninsular West Coast. Today we may see heavy rains over many places in Coastal Karnataka. One or two places over Udupi district may even see very heavy rains. Gradually from tomorrow more places may see rainfall intensity increase as westerlies strengthen under the influence of the developing cyclonic circulation. Models currently expect this area of disturbance to possibly strengthen into a Cyclonic Circulation during the 2nd half of this week. During this period we may see an increase in rains over Peninsular West coast.
Additionally conducive conditions for thunderstorms over the leeward plains may also be set up along with it. This could bring some much needed rains to parts of TN that has been reeling under intense afternoon heat. As the area of disturbance strengthens we may see reduction in afternoon heat from Wednesday for places in North TN initially and then the rest of the plains too. With thunderstorms influenced by the cyclonic circulation we may see rains peak during the late night hours compared to the typical convective thunderstorms.
The next couple of days we may see isolated moderate thunderstorms happen over North TN. Chennai and suburbs may benefit from some of these storms crossing close to the coast. Wednesday onwards until end of the week things look much better for possible the first widespread thunderstorm event over the leeward plains of TN.
The COMK Estimated Rainfall Range now features a new addition in ECMWF AIFS Ensemble based output for the district headquarters of TN & PDC.