2016 heads into Record Books with Lowest Rainfall since 1876 for TN & Pondy

With 2016 winding down as we are in the last couple of days of the year a COMK analysis on how 2016 is going to be a watershed moment as far as rainfall goes for Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry.  The numbers presented here are for the Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry sub division as classified by IMD.  The data period pertains to 1871 to 2016 since the time IMD has created a homogeneous rainfall data set for sub divisions.

Overall 2016 is on course to record the poorest annual rainfall since 1876.  By the skin of teeth 2016 avoids recording the poorest year since 1871. Less than 10 mm will possibly separate the two years when the year ends finally.  In what is something that possibly needs to be studied in depth without any more delay is whether the rainfall pattern is undergoing any change as 3 out of the 15 poorest years have happened in the last 15 years.  Whether is this a decadal pattern or a long term rainfall pattern change evolving needs to be studied.

In a case of repeating pattern 1876 and 2016 once again occupy the Top 2 spots for the poorest Northeast Monsoon years since 1871.  In a curious case of irony 2015 Northeast Monsoon recorded more than what 2016 recorded annually.  If not for the last spell of rains from the Trough of Low during the last few days we could have possibly seen 2016 end up as the poorest Northeast Monsoon in almost 150 years.  In the end once again less than 3 mm separate 1876 and 2016.  In this context the two cyclones, Nada & Vardah, in December possibly prevented 2016 becoming an even bigger disaster than what is currently happening.

If one were to see how much Northeast Monsoon possibly influences the overall annual rainfall those years that saw a very poor Northeast Monsoon more often than not has lead to a poor year overall.  1876, 2016, 1904 all featuring in the 10 poorest years in both categories while 1892, 1938 & 1974 within the poorest 15 years for annual rainfall while they feature in the 10 poorest Northeast Monsoon years. This possibly confirms the importance of Northeast Monsoon on the overall rainfall prospects for Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry.

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  • Ramirao

    Wow…terrific westerlies building along equatorial west-central Indian Ocean waters (phase 2) “might be” due to passage of Kekvin wave…This Kelvin wave will be giving the way for MJO’s entry at phase 2…By 31st December there will be huge-convection erupting at phase 2..slowly this convection will move towards BOB side… http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

  • sriram
  • Ramirao
    • G.B.Rajendran

      A clear understandable sentence Sir.

  • G.B.Rajendran

    Respected and Dear friends, I would like to put forward my perspective,usually a theory, rather a technical view is substantiated and the same is discussed,analyzed, argued and countered, in result which leads further to a broader and deeper insight, which is very much welcome but all stops insufficiently within these limits as there is no conclusion or a concluding part is not given to such rich analytic and arguments, it is true that the participants posses due knowledge and a concluding part may not be necessary for them but a conclusion is necessary to benefit the non technical persons to read the concluded part so that to understand the whole argument which was substantiated, not a detailed conclusion which is practically impossible but an understandable concluding sentence is needed otherwise it would be like reading the grammar of Latin, which will not serve the purpose in general.

    • Ramirao

      Great words sir?

    • jeganatharaja

      Yes… We felt the same… Just there was a deep conversation, almost point out the situation describing with technical jargons. AnyEducative , primary meteorology lessons available in this site may useful for amateur pursuers.

    • SrikanthK

      As usual clear thoughts from you sir. Will try to keep this in mind in the days to come

  • Ramirao

    Oh…no..For better SWM-2017, we need very active SH cyclonic season, which still pretty young…. https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/814497290169634817?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

  • raone gone

    any chance of rains for chennai in jan ????

  • Akshay
  • Ramirao

    It’s always challenging and risky to drive/walk on slippery snowy roads? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/233af06033e49917088e242cefb3d1da17181b0189d15dfebb590d8cb3a77401.jpg

  • Ramirao

    AAM making rounds and rounds within the circle (in lower phases) that indicating weak Nina to neutral-range.

    https://s29.postimg.org/6b2rnjgjr/gfsgwo_1.png

  • Ramirao

    wow…there will be further deepening in SH/AL ratio, which hinting about the active NEM conditions at BOB…recently some meaningful rains occurred over SL and STN when it started dipping…

    now its going to deepen further that indicating the active NEM pulse (powerful than the recent concluded easterly) at BOB ahead.

    Note: The negative anomaly in SH/AL ration indirectly hinting about the tropical NINA forcing an hence strong trades to support any rain-bearing system..

    SH/AL ratio: https://s29.postimg.org/w7u1u9tmf/sib_High_Alt_Low.png

  • Ramirao

    Wow..this is interesting tweet on North Pacific ridge vs AAM drop… https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/814411952583745537

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    Huge differences between the ECMWF ensembles, control and operational runs. I think we will see a period of flux time during the 2nd week of January

    • torbjörn

      Now you are talking. So there is a possibility of rains next week. Major easterly wind anomaly building up in the Pacific. Question is will it push through to BoB ?

      • SrikanthK

        I am still not sure, think we need to wait another couple of days

    • Akshay

      Sri – don’t forget about Pongal meet!

  • Ramirao
  • torbjörn

    Akshay can you guide me on Pacific Ocean dynamics since you know more than anyone else on that zone ?

    I see this big massive build of easterlies out in the Pacific as a easterly wind anomaly. What would it take to move west into MTC and beyond ?

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.RP9VppfDul.gif

    • Akshay

      That Pacific easterlies converging with IO westerlies in Maritime Continent @ 120E is where convection associated with La Nina state has set up…

      • Akshay

        Its difficult to get that easterlies operating over Indian Ocean under current base-state scenario (temporarily may happen when there is an intraseasonal oscillation pausing the La Nina)..

        The easterlies over IO typically happens in El Nino.

        When the QS. convection over Maritime shifts to East Pacific, it rises the pressure over the MTC & induce the anomalous easterlies over IO….. which helps develop the +IOD phenomenon.

        During Autumn, this +IOD interference becomes prominent as its nature of IO to interfere with El Nino during Autumn.

        Which means basically the lower pressures over W IO & High pressures over WPAC creates strong pressure gradient that brings in surge of the easterlies towards S India, Tamil Nadu where NEM will benefit.

        • Akshay

          In NINO walker cell, whenever the IO flare up has failed in Autumn combined with lack of MJO pulses, NEM has failed…

          Most of succeeded monsoon in Nino years, the IO interference was predominant in Autumn.

  • torbjörn

    As the easterlies strengthen the only hope is that some of the warm water on the eastern seaboard will move west via a BoB oceanic Rossby wave.

    • torbjörn

      But can it really bring the warm waters east to our western seashore ?

      https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.YHu0c65u3k.gif

      Sadly the westerly wind anomaly extends to the surface level(1000 hpa – close) .

      • Akshay

        So this fits well with my analysis of @120E convection resumption will again start the process of cooling the IO!

        • torbjörn

          Yes I think so. I am starting to see what you are saying. if that blue patch of easterlies from 120 E to dateline moves west manifold benefits for TN.

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus some notable changes I have observed comparing the old school convective cells, last four cool enso season, & 2016…. Current year is no where close to what we had during last four cool enso seasons.

  • SrikanthK

    GFS seem to be showing a precipitation pattern in NH that is not in sync with where the current ITCZ is there. I would take it with a pinch of salt

    • torbjörn

      Have you checked with ECMWF EPS ? Is it showing something ?

      You see my model is just showing a weak system touching TN coast.

      • SrikanthK

        Nothing major when I checked showing a weak trough perpendicular to Sri Lanka

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus – something tells me we have went far ahead of the process in terms of tropical circulation….

    During December January is time where you get MJO pulse that affects the Pacific SST as you said but this process happened in November 2016 with on-equator convection over West Pacific near Date-line…

    See the westerlies & on-equator cyclonic spin over WPAC..

    In an ideal world given our -ENSO Walker Cell (Velocity Potential I showed below) shouldnt happen..

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/20/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-207.50,1.33,466/loc=156.930,0.897

    • Akshay

      This WWB actually created the downwelling Kelvin wave…. August September October you had the Main Development Region over WPAC shut down clearly fits well, but later in November due to cooler lower stratosphere over tropics changed the complexion…

      From that we have recovered slowly & now only the MT convection associated with Nina is getting into gear.

    • SrikanthK

      Whether we are behind or ahead only time will tell

      • Akshay

        There is right now broad inversion over upper-troposphere due to warm lower tropical stratosphere plauged by the westerlies in QBO state.. I question we have a legitimate MJO pulse at least thru Jan…. may be in February or March as seasonal climatological wave lengths change, we would have!!!!

  • torbjörn

    @vigneshwarnarayanan:disqus – Reynolds SST anomaly is usually most reliable used in peer reviewed journals.

    Western arm of BoB is not that warm.

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/images/wkanomv2.png

    • Akshay

      Well if anything there is due to lack of surface wind-stress due to change in convection.. Once the Maritime Continent turns active, EQ. westerlies would be in play!

  • torbjörn

    For those looking for a scientific explanation of how astrology that is distant planets affect Earth’s climate it is very much possible.

    http://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/7452/what-are-the-relative-contributions-of-planets-to-the-milankovitch-cycles

    One possible mechanism how planets do it – they change the Milankovitch cycles. That means they change the tilt of the planet earth and in effect change the heating patterns. Of course this effect is very subtle and manifested over a long period. But it is a starting point for understanding much much deeper truths. The impact of the larger universe on the earth’s climate.

    • SrikanthK

      So there is an explanation on how it could be predicted

      • torbjörn

        One way it could possibly work is that Jupiter and Saturn change the eccentricity of the earth. That itself is enough to cause manifold changes. As you can see both Jupiter and Saturn are slow moving planets. So their transits are keenly watched.

  • torbjörn

    Three significant astrological events for 2017 –

    Saturn transit Jan 26th

    Rahu Ketu transit – July 2017

    Jupiter transit – September 2017.

    Saturn sets the tone with 2 1/2 year stay in Sagittarius.

    In comparison with interannual patterns Saturn transit in Sagittarius will be watched closely with rainfall patterns for both SWM/NEM.

    • sriram cr

      I don’t think Saturn transit happens on Jan, probably a different calendar – thirukanidha panchangam says it Jan and as per vakya panchangam it is 2nd november 2017 (generally accepted)

  • torbjörn

    Lunch time update – the rain signal in one of my models for Jan first week disappeared.

    What is clear from observations though is that the spatial extent(horizontal) of the positive SST anomaly of eastern BoB has expanded. Whether the OLR pattern will correspond to that in the atmosphere needs to be seen.

    • torbjörn

      The OLR signal as well indicates strong convection in that area. Will it spread westward ? Models currently indicate NOT. So if the SST anomaly expands and holds for 3-5 days then things could become interesting. Let us hope it does.

      https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/olr/olr.anom.7day.gif

      • Vigneshwar Narayanan

        I am suspecting Western arm of BoB is more warmer than the satellite SST data. We have had cloudless days for some time now

        • torbjörn

          Problem is as it approaches TN coast the extraordinary subsidence at the 200 hPa is strong enough to suck out any moisture that does form and with these weak systems due to late December and the westerly wind anomaly hanging out over TN does not help.

          • Akshay

            Well I had put my Jan-March temp/precip map day before yesterday – saw it ?

      • Akshay

        Can u again notice the -OLR still expansive to Asia/Africa Continents ?

        • torbjörn

          Expansive to North Africa and Saudi Arabia I can tell yes. Asia NO.

  • SrikanthK

    Possibly the last spell from #NortheastMonsoon 2016 & the year. Will end at -62% for NEM and -42% for the year Deficits Harsh Summer Ahead https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05eaac09c8b873d51052860ea668ad96735fba8bf8e9bf5ead0b49b2f4164f56.png

    • If not the summer cyclone, the year deficit would have been much more

      • SrikanthK

        Yes it would have been far worse

  • HEMACHANDER
    • SrikanthK

      Oh good to see some places get these rains

  • SrikanthK

    @disqus_Iphvppv6Hy:disqus The way you see and the way I see more often than not is different. I look for patterns in a different way thanks to my corporate background. Now look at the Nino 3.4 chart. Except for 2016 you can see the values are normally at their lowest around Dec. / Jan after which there is a trend of increasing warmth. While am not saying the clock runs exactly the same every year but we are in that time of the year where the increasing trend will kick in unless its a multi year Nina which as of now we are not yet in.

    Look at how the sub surface cool waters are also reducing. When the surface waters tend to get moved from West to East it is going to be replaced by the sub surface waters, the cool anomalies will continue until the sub surface supports it. Once that is out the surface level cannot remain cool on its own

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/958878982e6e741510209ca86d0bf11741138204cca8b1b67be4b54468557c62.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/30d7b0de05f3f46dd32d2cf61ea1fa27a81fad94c8d9ee886c234705e4d58312.png

    • SrikanthK

      Read the movement of surface waters from “East to West”

      • Vigneshwar Narayanan

        So this shud strengthen the easterlies isnt it

        • SrikanthK

          Theoretically yes I think

      • Akshay

        Sri – i agree with this & looked at from this perspective but the thing is am looking for support from atmosphere…

        • SrikanthK

          My point of view is if the atmosphere does not respond to ocean in time it’s a still born event. In the same context I also believe once the ocean comes back to the base state because the atmosphere did not respond in time then it’s difficult for atmosphere to trigger the changes by itself. Yes 2016 has proven many theories wrong so you may never know

          • Akshay

            @pypkmsrikanth:disqus – the thermocline slope which has been altered right now near date line is due to change in the way convection operated during November, December where you had WWB closer to date line…over equator…

            My point is that if the tropical circulation operates in a way that Maritime Continent is active & convection @ 120E does its job during January, the trades over Pacific will not allow the warm Pool to climb up.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a950646b9a3f82bcd5c25e2dc77ae6338f56e38cf4c72c2cb5c063e793bd18a.png

            • Akshay

              You need to shift this tropical circulation over Maritime towards West Pacific completely to further deepen the thermocline that migrates to East Pacific…

              As long as that tropical circulation over Maritime Continent persists, which is a reflection of La-Nina state, there’s every chance that trades will dictate the behavior of warm Pool closer to date-line.

              https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.Ij4OHLYQaI.gif

              • Akshay

                These low-frequency convection migration are bit tricky to predict…as the seasonal cycle doesn’t favor until February or March in elongation of cell network or migration.

              • SrikanthK

                Let’s see. As I said we have different ways of seeing things.

              • Akshay

                Not only us here, Eric Webb Anthony Phil Michael ventrice Eric Blake also have different ways of seeing this….

                So let us see how things evolve..

              • SrikanthK

                They are all professionals. I am an Aam Aadmi

          • Ganesh R

            I like the last sentence. It is a clean slate now and fresh start begins.I remember reading in one of the vedas, that among the many things difficult to comprehend and understand in this universe the weather will top the charts any day any place.:-)

            • SrikanthK

              Absolutely Ganesh it’s a new learning every day.

  • [email protected]

    How to determine any itcz by seeing models and sat image

    • Akshay

      Look out for a set of thunderstorm clouds…due to convergence of NH and SH winds https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e10a24cdc06264c02002f620745d472b7e5ef5afc2322a22d73bdc59d424b3b.png

      • [email protected]

        Thx. Line of clouds all along from Kenya to Singapore:o

    • SrikanthK

      Look at Earth Null or Windy Ty check where the surface winds meet. See if the convective clouding is at similar locations. That’s the fool proof method of checking the location of ITCZ

  • Ramirao

    Bhusan (South Korean based agency) given a good hope for heavy rains staring from April month onwards for southern peninsular India and a solid start to SWM-2017…Based on write-up regarding April-May-June months it look there could be summer system (pre-monsoon system)?..Wow it’s somewhat a great early news? http://m.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/summer-of-2017-may-be-kinder-to-india-predicts-korean-agency/article9448014.ece

  • Ramirao
  • Ramirao

    NE bracing for winter storm this weekend… https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonywx/status/814073270706327552

  • Akshay

    Some nice Cross Polar flow over N Hemisphere – should fuel Arctic outbreak for the West NA, Midwest Plains & interior North East.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de91bc07be0dd20d0ccd637371eefcb8f4885bace94751aecbfb99a09aabbcfa.gif

    • Ramirao

      Why sub-tropics behaving in Nina
      mode with tropics in Nino mode? Is this due to HC expansion? https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/814214584508809216?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

      • Ramirao
        • Akshay

          I had already said this in July itself. La Nina will be the primary driver for this winter…& above is a forecast > 7 days & that’s the time where @120E convection perks up.

      • Akshay

        First of all that Poleward North Pacific ridge is a response to @120E convection…. its typical Nina climo….

        • Ramirao

          But why this Nina forcing failed to enter IO waters comprehensively and consistently?

          • Akshay

            Don’t keep asking same questions when answer was given > 100 times by @torbjörn:disqus & myself

            • Ramirao

              For God sake please don’t bring here other names when we both discussing.

              • Ramirao

                when we both discussing*

              • Akshay

                La Nina primarily is for Maritime Continent & Sumatra, the E IO portion….

                La Nina enhances winters vs La Nina suppressed winters…. Understand that & read the different types of La Nina in our world & then come back…

                In that sense, TCs were the way to go for 2016 NEM – yes it was the way it happened but the wierd October pattern of stratosphere warming caused by 150W standing wave changed the way convection operated & led to a fresh MJO pulse over Pacific….

              • Akshay

                We discussed this > 50 times minimum overall on this… October pattern ….

                Go thru articles on different ways of La Nina & how typical 2016 tropics is oriented with convection over Indonesia… & persistent W IO subsidence.

              • Ramirao

                My memory is too short?

          • Ramirao

            Less equatoward and more poleward provocation? +QBO is the main culprit?

  • [email protected]

    Gud morning comk:)..like lik ecm picking one significant system may be a d around sw bay and equator around Jan 4 ._7.any views on tat experts?..ecm expecting it to cum near n.sl in 240 hrs as a gud system

    • Akshay

      Am following @pypkmsrikanth:disqus Aam Admi route

      • [email protected]

        Gud idea?

    • SrikanthK

      Its too low in latitude if you ask me, also if the ITCZ strengthens further in the SH then not much possibility of convection climbing. Rains could be confined to Sri Lanka and possibly extreme South TN

      • Akshay

        I asked you a question below on for what reason you think window is shutting soon. Can u say ? Just to understand from what perspective you are thinking !

        • SrikanthK

          Give me some time I will try to explain my thinking

    • Ramirao

      Yes..there is a fair chance of a decent system due to MJO-RMM peaking at phase 2 by both ECMWF and GFS…with deepening Nina on short duration (AAM entered lower phases with fair chance of increase in SOI to elevate the STR)…but need to see whether it will end in open BOB or will make definite landfall,.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

  • sriram cr

    so we are running with two thesis here, on when the window is going to shut. Let see . I read jayashree’s article on 2017 rainfall forecast where she indicated very less favorable rainfall conditions throughout the year. If Srikanth wins and jayashree’s forecast comes true, tough times ahead for TN.

  • sriram cr

    Good morning Experts, is there any temperate change in chennai (minimum) is last 3 or 4 days. I could feel the late nights and early mornings are not as cold as it was a week before !! any signals ??

    • SrikanthK

      Thanks to the trough the winds are more Easterlies this has higher moisture compared to the dry continental winds which are basically land breeze from the North as was the case last week

  • Akshay

    Well @torbjörn:disqus come January especially during the Pongal time, watch out changes in spatial structure of 200mb Velocity Potential plots in re-analysis data…

  • Akshay

    Here are the years that went to Ninos & second are the years that persisted in cold enso regime.
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/u4Hujnq8Rc.png
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/pAqx_f4EyB.png

    • Ramirao

      Do you prefer high amplitude global circuit in MJO during January to May in a post-Nino year to convert into Nina later? Or weak amplitude in MJO during this period?

      • Akshay

        Common characters of MJO circuiting the Globe is in Jan & March but each years background state is different.l

        • Ramirao

          Yes..jan to march all have common characters..but there is difference in April and May months…the year 1988 (post Nino 1987) had terrific high amplitude global circuit since January till May month…

          • Akshay

            Still enough time left… to cool the system…. Until the Tropics/walker cell shifts out of Maritime Continent, don’t think this Nina would fade so soon. Only if that convection shifts out of the zone of @ 100 to @ 120E, the SST will start getting affected.

    • Akshay

      Well there’s a reason for the huge Polar blocking the years that transit to Ninos in MAM… The low-freq. convection progresses eastward towards Date-line & when MJO interferes with this convection – huge mass of Rossby wave disperison from the convection near Date line amplifies the Polar block !

  • torbjörn

    This is the climatology of the Velocity Potential for this time of the year

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.6gLwA_uqYJ.gif

    and this is the observed –

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Figures/curr.vpt.7day.figa.gif

    IO could do better for this time of year. The African half is protruding into our space a bit too much for NEM norm.

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus Well, The window is not shutting anytime soon… This is classic La Nina signature setting up in Jan.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016122806/cfs-mon_01_chi200_global_1.png

  • HEMACHANDER

    From yesterday afternoon no rains in delta still now sky looks partly cloudy.

    • torbjörn

      The area of precipitation has moved further south of you to extreme south TN. So Ramnad and below.

  • HEMACHANDER

    I hope this s last record of such a very poor monsoon….govt might takes some steps to avoid drought in summer otherwise drought situation can’t be solved.

  • SrikanthK

    Decadal change or long term change in rainfall pattern?

    • Akshay

      I also had this question… do you remember I had also posted about decadal change in IO behavior this year ?

  • Ajith Kumar K

    Sir how will be the NEM 2017 ? Any Idea?

    • SrikanthK

      Very Very early to Say..Lets see if we get some unseasonal rains to compensate

      • Akshay

        My twitter Inbox is full with respect to 2017 NE Monsoons.. :)) Don’t know what to respond !

        • sudarsan

          U have become a rockstar in Twitter

    • Akshay

      We don’t know how next week will pan out itself :))

      • torbjörn

        You could spin it the other way. Googly. What he maybe asking is whether NEM will continue into Jan Feb March of 2017.

        • Akshay

          Wow…. that’s a good one… :))

        • HEMACHANDER

          You mean winter rains will help us

          • torbjörn

            I do not know. I am just trying to give a positive spin to Ajith’s question.

    • HEMACHANDER

      How can predict now? We need to wait atleast 9months to get good idea.

  • Akshay

    Last year at this time, the thermocline was gradually getting ready for La Nina development & what a change this year. October November WWB has altered slope of thermocline in 2016 Dec….
    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

    • Akshay

      Still there is enough cooler thermocline left in Pac – if the process that can strengthen the Pacific trades emerges, this deepened thermocline over C PAC will back off… So let’s see how things evolve.

      • SrikanthK

        The window is getting shut soon

        • Akshay

          January is the stage that can set up….

        • Akshay

          Can u explain the reason ?

    • Ramirao

      OMG…warm pool? What’s really happening??

      • Akshay

        1 month Pacific trades are required at least 3 weeks…

        • Ramirao
          • Akshay

            Trades will be there throughout January majority…. Late Feb & March is the time where the walker cell shift process would take place… if its going to be a Nino in 2017 !

            • Ramirao

              Good thing is that AAM entered lower phases with SOI set to increase…trades will keep stronger to cool off the any further warm pacific waters.

              • Akshay

                The Pac trades weren’t that impressive since early November & is actually right now after all big gap its coming to life.

              • Ramirao

                Need to see whether this trade surge can ignite a pulse at BOB as started showing from leading models by early 2nd week of January…