Vanishing Bengaluru Winters?? – A COMK Analysis

Long term residents of Bengaluru often remark the winters are no more as cool as it used to be in the past.  In the same context people also say the Early Summer has been much more harsh than the good old days as well.  Is there any merit in this argument or could it be an urban myth.

We have tried to find answers by doing a little bit of number crunching with the use of Max Temperature & Min. Temperature data for the IMD observatory in Bengaluru for the period 1980 to 2017.  Keeping in mind the unique weather pattern of the city we have taken the period December to February as Winter while March & April has been considered as the summer months since May typically sees the influence of Pre Monsoon thundershowers that influences the weather pattern.

A few observations which possibly indicate post Millennium the city has indeed been going through long term warming.

  1. Since 2000 the Average Maximum Temperature during winters (Dec. – Feb.) have not dipped below 28°C with 9 of those years seeing in excess of 29°C.  In Comparison for two decades from 1980 the Avg Max did not exceed 29°C even once
  2. Though 1983 on the back of fading El Nino saw an average Summer Max Temp of 34.9°C until 2012 the Avg Max Temp during summers did not touch 35°C.  Subsequently 2 more years have seen the temp cross 35°C peaking at 35.4°C during 2016 once again on the back of a fading El Nino
  3. Between 1980 to 1999 the Winter time minimum avg temperatures dipped below 16°C on 7 occasions while post 2000 only 2 years have seen the winter period record avg minimum below 16°C

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While Summer has also see a clear warming trend it appears Bengaluru is slowly its winters for sure with the days becoming consistently warmer and even the night time weather not as cool as it used to be in the past.