Underrated Thunderstorm season Marches on in Tamil Nadu

The relentless march of thunderstorms in Tamil Nadu since the turn of October has been continuing with yesterday also seeing many interior parts of the state getting good rains under the impact of wind instability induced conducive atmospheric conditions.  In a welcome news parts of South Tamil Nadu also recorded good rains with places like Kamudhi getting rains after a long break.

In another piece of good news Southwest Monsoon has started to withdraw once again after stalling for more than 10 days in Northwest India.  With things in place for further withdrawal we could see some daily movement on the withdrawal line in the coming days.  If one were to compare this year’s situation to last couple of years, we are at similar time frame to 2016 while 2015 and 2014 pretty much was well advanced in terms of withdrawal.

As mentioned in our opening remarks the thunderstorm season has been pretty much the silent performer for Tamil Nadu this year.  Just like Southwest Monsoon period where thunderstorms contributed to excess monsoon for TN & Pondy since the turn of October the Northeast Monsoon seasonal tally scoreboard has been briskly updated by the thunderstorms.  As of yesterday while the sub-division is at 39% excess it has already contributed 18% of the seasonal tally with no clarity on the Northeast Monsoon onset yet.

Interior places of South India will continue to see thunderstorms with the areas around Rayalaseema, Int. Karnataka, parts of NW Tamil Nadu and coastal AP likely to see moderate to heavy thunderstorms in a few places.  Like yesterday parts of South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala could also see moderate rains in a few places on account of the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation that has been persisting off the coast of Sri Lanka

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  • Leo Michaelraj

    Bay gears up for LPA in the East Central Bay in the next 48 hrs. It will move in NNW direction
    https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/fresh-low-pressure-area-likely-in-bay-of-bengal-may-intensify-into-depression/

  • A V Subramanian

    GM All, radar in the sea looks active and clolourful !!!

    • Yes, hopefully storms survive…

      • Leo Michaelraj

        Will it move towards the coast

  • Natarajan

    ECMWF developing depression in central bay exact west of our coast in coming days. Need to check for consistency in upcoming runs

    • SrikanthK

      We could see the Genesis to the east of Chennai midway between Andaman & Chennai

  • Vivek

    Heavy rains for the past 1/2 hour in East Bangalore

  • narayanan_ky

    Nights have become hazy and slightly cooler in southern suburbs signs of changing winds …

  • sriram

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95f71b0caaeb423dbf2529a24afabbb39dcf27ef6fcb3f8e911678cd25a1e60d.png This is hurricane john in pacific ocean..it is the longest lasted hurricane in the world..lasted for 31days..
    Formed on aug 11,1994
    Dissipated on sep 10,1994.

    • SrikanthK

      Used to share these tidbits regularly earlier. It crossed the date line and became Typhoon and then once again crossed the dateline to become Hurricane again

    • Wow, that’s interesting. 31 days!

  • barath rakesh

    Ncum shows heavy rain in 14,15,16

  • barath rakesh
    • sriram

      This is the only model which is showing rains fr us

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Hope it comes true

  • sriram
  • barath rakesh

    Latest jamstec forecast below nem head

  • barath rakesh
    • ~Prince~

      Landfall is same mostly, but changes happening in its path !!!

      • barath rakesh

        Yes very bour

  • SrikanthK

    Some intense storms around Krishnagiri

  • ~Prince~
    • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

      I think it may move wsw.. . bcuz dry killer air almost 0% humidity over India except tn and Kerala!!

      • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

        Oh. No it is moving towards ban…!!

  • SrikanthK

    Will Chennai see another day of midnight / early morning rains

    • A V Subramanian

      Sri Sir,.I was about to ask and you are asking us !!!!!

  • Venkatesh

    Hyderabad is getting his rains indeed I have started to chennai

    • SrikanthK

      Please pack some of the rains in the SLR and bring it to Chennai

      • Rakesh Pandya Pursawakkam

        One guy from gujarat has posted in facebook that NEM onset is possible after 1st week of november 🙄

        • SrikanthK

          Even if we dont get by October, the latest could be around 5th / 6th of November I think

  • Natarajan

    Philippines, Taiwan get huge typhoons each year. Taiwan especially seems better prepared. India can take lessons from such a country for disaster mitigation & management

  • Natarajan

    We have seen mjo persisting in phase 2 & 3(indian ocean during nem in 2015),phase 5,phase 6& phase 8 in earlier years

    We have to check has there been instance of Mjo persisting for a long time in phase 1(Africa) & phase 4(western maritime/sumatra)

    • SrikanthK

      Phase 1 at this time can be conveniently ignored I think, phase 4 is a possibility

  • Natarajan

    Huge spiral bands moving around a centre just off phillipines . Magic of mjo in phase 5

    • Natarajan

      system for vietnam slowly cooking

      • SrikanthK

        Lets get those systems out of West Pac, the earlier the better

        • Natarajan

          yes. Hope mjo moves out of phase 5/6 soon

  • SrikanthK

    As of today we are at 86 mm for October in TN & PDC, compare this with 66 mm of last year. Far better with possibly more good days to come this year compared to 2016. No need to panic yet

  • sriram

    Is october done and dusted? No positive signs yet

    • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

      Nothing significant for the month.. probably everything’s over I reckon, for the month..

    • SrikanthK

      Why worry about October when most interior places have got more than their due. Our turn will come in November

      • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

        Some positive thing.. but most models show a below normal rain for Nov and Dec!!

        • SrikanthK

          Models are just models. They are not Gods. Yes one needs to know how to get the best out of Models

          • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

            True!! Let’s see what it turn out to be in reality!!

      • sriram

        Already nem is very short..how can v believe november..very tricky

        • SrikanthK

          Mark my words you will be surprised by how November will end

          • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

            According to you excess rainfall for chennai this nov??

            • SrikanthK

              I did not say excess, but certainly its not going to be the doom & gloom which most of you are expecting

          • sriram

            I trust ur words always..

          • brindha vivekanand

            Thanks for these words.

          • jeganatharaja

            Forecaster transforms into foreteller ?

            • SrikanthK

              No Foretelling Sir..just trying to infer based on what am seeing

              • Rakesh Pandya Pursawakkam

                Always trust you.

          • mahamood ali

            Sri this is enough , no worries about OCT , will wait for Nov Direct

          • Ganesh R

            True Sri. My guess is this may also earn the tag as Never Ending Monsoon in Jan 2018.i have a strong feeling on this even though it is too far….

    • Natarajan

      Due to active west pacific, there is hardly chance of nem onset in oct. Due to active west pacific , westerlies will dominate IO/South china sea

    • Natarajan

      Mjo is in phase 5 and will move to phase 6 in high amplitude in next week. This will lead to hyper active Maritime & WPAC

  • Siddhart(Poonamallee)
  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    21 places have already recorded at least 20 cms this October with Yercaud topping at 33 cms followed by Kallakurichi at 31 cms

  • SrikanthK

    Ambur has got a minimum of 1 cms rains on 9 days this October, 6th, 7th & 11th are the only days it did not record at least 10 mm

  • SrikanthK

    Another day of rains in Bangalore

    • Natarajan

      if it rains heavily in ramanagara,kollegal,mandya its good for mettur inflows too

      • SrikanthK

        Actually a good NEM this year would have possibly got Mettur full. SWM has given strong foundations

  • HEMACHANDER

    Full cloudy day in delta got some drizzles here and there ….with the convective rains most of them started to “Samba” agriculture hope NEM will give meaningful rains to farmers …I hope god won’t regret our trust after a big drought.

    • SrikanthK

      Lets hope for the farmers sake NEM does not fail

  • Siddharth

    It’s been 4 yrs since cyclone phailin made landfall in odissa

    • Natarajan

      It was equivalent to category 5. IMD mentioned it as category 4 only

    • Natarajan

      It was a pulse from south China sea

  • Kamal Deen

    Hi friends hw u all .Just clarify my doubt hw ll be our NEM EXCESS or NORMAL or BELOW

    • SrikanthK

      Things are still fluid. October could be below normal for places like chennai while interior areas enjoyed thunderstorms. There is still some hope for November though few models are indicating below normal rains

      • Kamal Deen

        So sad to hear it😭😭

    • Natarajan

      Only if easterlies come at mid level in bay we can get some picture. Reg. quantum, as NEM is based entirely on systems than SWM , a hit or miss can change the equations

  • Leo Michaelraj
    • SrikanthK

      No it’s only one system

  • ROHIT AROSKAR

    Mumbai SCZ past 18 years weather averages..
    http://www.vagaries.in/p/rohit-aroskars-page.html?m=1

    • SrikanthK

      Good to see you here Rohit.. very detailed analysis as usual from you

      • ROHIT AROSKAR

        Thanks Shrikanth..Hope for a good November for Chennai rains

  • Natarajan

    Mjo attaining high amplitude in phase 5 & 6 in the next two weeks

  • Natarajan

    At least 3-4 systems can be expected in SCS/WPAC till october end. The first one is in formation stages near phillipines

    • sudar san

      how november looks as of now

      • Natarajan

        Nov is diff ball game. We can get some picture only when at least easterlies come into bay

  • Natarajan

    NE moving wpac typhoon will not allow easterlies to settle in. Quite doubtful of onset on october. Also, not sure if further systems may follow after this

    • SrikanthK

      October is going to be a washout for sure, November is a different month all together

      • Malakrishnasamy

        Anna.what you mean by washout? In terms of onset or rain?

        • Natarajan

          onset

          • Malakrishnasamy

            OK sir

          • Leo Michaelraj

            So rains in October due to NEM

            • Natarajan

              Highly doubtful of nem rains in october.with NE moving systems in WPAC/SCS dont know when easterlies will set even in SCS

              • Malakrishnasamy

                Is there any years which gave good rains after a delayed onset?

              • SrikanthK

                November is key for us. More than onset

              • Natarajan

                2015,2009 had late onset.we had good rains too. In 2009 it was oct 30th i think. But in 2015 we had at least easterlies in bay in mid oct. This time its bad

      • A V Subramanian

        2015 also, if I recollect , the first meaningful spell started on 31st Oct, we had a dream November !!!

  • Natarajan

    One of the pre condition of NEM – strong easterlies in SCS may not happen for minimum 2 weeks

  • ~Prince~
  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    It appears the system may make landfall after Diwali

  • ~Prince~
    • SrikanthK

      Good for them after losing rains for long

  • SrikanthK

    Whats latest on ECMWF

    • Natarajan

      Its showing landfall in orissa just north of puri

    • Selvakumar(Raijin)

      Still maintaining Orissa landfall

    • Natarajan

      Its expecting DD only.GFS is expecting a strong cyclone and crashes it into sunderbans in west bengal

    • Natarajan

      Conditions in bay are ripe for a strong system. All depends on wind shear too. Shear map shows decreasing shear across north bay

  • r2d2

    Error 404: Sun not Found!

    • Error 500: too many redirects for the Diwali system

      • Vignesh

        Alt+Ctl+ Delete . End process diwali system

      • Gopal R S

        Enna Nadakkuthu Inga… Cntl+A Shift Delete… 🙂

  • ~Prince~

    Intense storm in east

  • ~Prince~

    Link for ukmet,ncum ??

  • betrayer

    Parts of north chennai like Sholavaram,Karanodai and surrounding areas have received moderate rains since midnight

  • ~Prince~

    some pop ups north

  • SrikanthK

    Weak rainbands moving??

    • Silent_Observer@Mylai/Santhome

      Seems all moving SW, below CGP

  • ~Prince~

    rain bands stationary ?? looks weakening also !!!

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Will not move towards the coast

  • SrikanthK

    Could we have a Kyant version 2 this year??

    • Vignesh

      Chance exists.

    • Vignesh

      If the system makes very slow movement than expected .. sure it will weakens and will move to towards SAP-NTN

    • Natarajan

      Yes. It can happen in nov/dec if system tries to move north but strong ridge above central AP latitude pushes it south to recurve towards tn coast. This happened in case of dec 1996 cyclone & dec 2013 cyclone madi

  • ~Prince~

    the earlier expected second pulse from SCS to enter into BOB on Oct 22/23, now re curves NE into SCS itself in latest GFS run

    • Natarajan

      yes.recurving NE in south china sea seems to be better than landfall in vietnam. Otherwise another pulse will come in bay and it will intensify and move again to north bay/orissa/north AP

    • sriram cr

      Srikanth edho soli erukar !!!!!

      • SrikanthK

        Yes..edho sollanum illai…nothing clear yet on NEM..

  • barath rakesh
    • This is typical of gfs… See ensemble data for somewhat reliable path.

  • Leo Michaelraj
    • barath rakesh

      Bro this is yesterday run

      • Leo Michaelraj

        Is it updated today

  • barath rakesh

    Bands move slightly nnw

  • ~Prince~

    system touching Myanmar coast in latest run

  • SrikanthK

    Northeast Monsoon not far away with these rains from the sea happening more often

  • Natarajan

    Parts of Chennai sneaked in some light rains this early morning.

  • Natarajan

    ECM shows only DD hitting Orissa,north ap coasts. In way it’s better for them than phailin,hudhud like cyclones

  • Natarajan

    Looks like UAC or trough is off TN coast. Some rains can come from sea

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)
  • ~Prince~

    rain bands moving towards the coast

    • Selvakumar(Raijin)

      Yes… It’s looking like moving towards coast if one goes with comparing the radar images

    • Selvakumar(Raijin)

      Will it sustain?

      • ~Prince~

        that the question im also having , some drizzles/light rains may be !

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)

    Finally Western Pacific is waking from the Kumbakarna mode.

    Atleast 3 Named storms are possible in this October

    • Selvakumar(Raijin)

      Hope it will not end up as bad omen for our NEM

  • Sharma Mani

    Interesting and also well analysed..

    • SrikanthK

      With a few more days of thunderstorms we will be much better off compared to 2016

      • Gopal R S

        Yes Sir, But No Positive Feedback For Chennai As Of Now… Even We Are Ready To Face Another vardah But Without Harm / Damage… 🙂

  • SrikanthK

    Somehow ECMWF ensembles are not very enthusiastic of a strong cyclone hitting East Coast. Need to observe

  • Malakrishnasamy

    Good morning.
    Happy about the current spell of rains.

    • Malakrishnasamy

      Thanks to the 71% excess rainfall over AP ,the reason for waterfowl in our rivers.. Telangana has received 75 % excess as per imd.

  • SrikanthK