The weak Easterlies have brought back some rains to the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu. Parts of Chennai recorded light rains in the wee hours today along with a few parts of North Coastal TN as well. Yesterday saw parts of Kottayam, Pathanamthitta & Thiruvananthapuram districts in Kerala record moderate rains under the influence of wind convergence.
Models indicate possibly another day of thunderstorms triggered by wind convergence in the areas along the Western Ghats, whether it happens to the East or the West of the ghats needs to be seen. Yesterday models indicated the convergence to happen along the places East of the Ghats but in reality it happened to the West of the Ghats.
Coastal Areas of Tamil Nadu will continue to see isolated light to moderate rains triggered by the weak low level Easterlies As we mentioned in our post yesterday the Notherly influence is persisting making the possibilities of heavy rains limited as of now.
Nevertheless on an immediate long term all eyes are to the Far East where the current Tropical Depression Kirogi is moving in a East to West direction as it continues to weaken. Numerical Models suggest this depression could cross the Malay Peninsula and regenerate itself as a tropical disturbance once again in the Andaman Sea. There is fairly high consistency among models on this pulse picking up once reaching Andaman Sea. Subsequently there is divergence among models in terms of intensity & movement though broadly we could expect a W/SW movement considering the fact it may not intensify into a major disturbance.
We will take one day at a time and continue to monitor this evolving scenario to provide consistent updates.